Grenada

Grenada’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.4%, a minimal risk. The country has strong institutions by regional standards, no enduring insurgency, and limited military capacity or domestic armed-group infrastructure. The 1983 US-led invasion remains the principal conflict episode in modern Grenadian history, but it was an external intervention rather than a continuing domestic conflict.

Recent reporting shows political competition ahead of the November 5 election, including the NNP’s “Better Grenada” campaign, but no evidence of organised armed mobilisation, serious political violence, or interstate confrontation involving Grenadian territory. Reports on Yemen and Ukraine concern conflicts abroad and do not indicate a credible pathway to fighting in Grenada.

The largest uncertainty is whether an unexpected political crisis could produce violence around the election or whether an external actor could target the island, neither of which is currently supported by the reporting. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained clashes between domestic political or security actors; continued peaceful campaigning and an orderly vote would reinforce the country’s established stability.