Grenada

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Grenada is 0.5%, representing a minimal risk. Grenada is a small, politically stable Caribbean state with no recent record of sustained internal armed violence, insurgency, or interstate confrontation. Its main historical conflict episode was the US-led invasion in October 1983, following a coup and domestic political crisis, but that episode remains exceptional rather than a continuing pattern.

Recent reporting provides no indication of mobilisation by domestic armed groups, military intervention, or an emerging dispute involving Grenada’s territory. The principal relevant actors remain the Grenadian government and security institutions, with the United States and regional Caribbean partners as potential external security actors; current coverage about wars and political repression elsewhere does not identify a direct threat to Grenada.

The largest uncertainty is the possibility of an abrupt political rupture or an external Caribbean security crisis, both of which would require developments not currently reported. Risk would rise most clearly with a coup attempt, organised armed violence, or a credible foreign threat to Grenadian territory; continued institutional stability and the absence of armed mobilisation would support the present minimal-risk assessment.