Country Risk Profiles

How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.

Afghanistan

29.2% annual new-conflict probability

Albania

0.9% annual new-conflict probability

Algeria

10.0% annual new-conflict probability

Andorra

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Angola

14.0% annual new-conflict probability

Antigua and Barbuda

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Argentina

0.9% annual new-conflict probability

Armenia

1.2% annual new-conflict probability

Australia

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Austria

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Azerbaijan

16.0% annual new-conflict probability

Bahamas

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Bahrain

3.2% annual new-conflict probability

Bangladesh

27.8% annual new-conflict probability

Barbados

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Belarus

1.8% annual new-conflict probability

Belgium

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Belize

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Benin

3.6% annual new-conflict probability

Bhutan

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Bolivia

0.9% annual new-conflict probability

Bosnia and Herzegovina

2.0% annual new-conflict probability

Botswana

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

Brazil

3.2% annual new-conflict probability

Brunei

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Bulgaria

0.9% annual new-conflict probability

Burkina Faso

7.3% annual new-conflict probability

Burundi

24.3% annual new-conflict probability

Cambodia

9.9% annual new-conflict probability

Cameroon

6.7% annual new-conflict probability

Canada

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Cape Verde

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Central African Republic

11.5% annual new-conflict probability

Chad

35.6% annual new-conflict probability

Chile

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

China

7.2% annual new-conflict probability

Colombia

1.6% annual new-conflict probability

Comoros

2.3% annual new-conflict probability

Congo

5.9% annual new-conflict probability

Costa Rica

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Croatia

0.8% annual new-conflict probability

Cuba

1.5% annual new-conflict probability

Cyprus

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Czech Republic

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Denmark

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Djibouti

3.9% annual new-conflict probability

Dominica

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Dominican Republic

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

DR Congo

22.3% annual new-conflict probability

East Timor

1.1% annual new-conflict probability

Ecuador

3.0% annual new-conflict probability

Egypt

16.5% annual new-conflict probability

El Salvador

1.2% annual new-conflict probability

Equatorial Guinea

0.8% annual new-conflict probability

Eritrea

29.3% annual new-conflict probability

Estonia

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Eswatini

1.5% annual new-conflict probability

Ethiopia

56.3% annual new-conflict probability

Fiji

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Finland

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

France

1.3% annual new-conflict probability

Gabon

0.7% annual new-conflict probability

Gambia

1.3% annual new-conflict probability

Georgia

6.1% annual new-conflict probability

Germany

0.8% annual new-conflict probability

Ghana

3.3% annual new-conflict probability

Greece

0.8% annual new-conflict probability

Grenada

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Guatemala

2.0% annual new-conflict probability

Guinea

3.8% annual new-conflict probability

Guinea-Bissau

2.3% annual new-conflict probability

Guyana

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Haiti

6.2% annual new-conflict probability

Honduras

1.7% annual new-conflict probability

Hungary

0.7% annual new-conflict probability

Iceland

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

India

41.4% annual new-conflict probability

Indonesia

10.1% annual new-conflict probability

Iran

41.6% annual new-conflict probability

Iraq

18.0% annual new-conflict probability

Ireland

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Israel

4.6% annual new-conflict probability

Italy

0.8% annual new-conflict probability

Ivory Coast

5.6% annual new-conflict probability

Jamaica

0.9% annual new-conflict probability

Japan

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

Jordan

14.8% annual new-conflict probability

Kazakhstan

1.1% annual new-conflict probability

Kenya

11.9% annual new-conflict probability

Kiribati

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Kosovo

1.0% annual new-conflict probability

Kuwait

8.9% annual new-conflict probability

Kyrgyzstan

2.8% annual new-conflict probability

Laos

2.4% annual new-conflict probability

Latvia

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Lebanon

12.2% annual new-conflict probability

Lesotho

2.4% annual new-conflict probability

Liberia

6.0% annual new-conflict probability

Libya

18.3% annual new-conflict probability

Liechtenstein

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Lithuania

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Luxembourg

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Madagascar

4.6% annual new-conflict probability

Malawi

3.1% annual new-conflict probability

Malaysia

2.1% annual new-conflict probability

Maldives

0.5% annual new-conflict probability

Mali

14.0% annual new-conflict probability

Malta

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Marshall Islands

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Mauritania

3.6% annual new-conflict probability

Mauritius

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

Mexico

8.7% annual new-conflict probability

Micronesia

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Moldova

4.0% annual new-conflict probability

Monaco

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Mongolia

0.8% annual new-conflict probability

Montenegro

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Morocco

5.0% annual new-conflict probability

Mozambique

25.7% annual new-conflict probability

Myanmar

25.9% annual new-conflict probability

Namibia

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

Nauru

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Nepal

5.3% annual new-conflict probability

Netherlands

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

New Zealand

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Nicaragua

1.4% annual new-conflict probability

Niger

17.9% annual new-conflict probability

Nigeria

16.3% annual new-conflict probability

North Korea

2.7% annual new-conflict probability

North Macedonia

1.2% annual new-conflict probability

Norway

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Oman

1.3% annual new-conflict probability

Pakistan

34.9% annual new-conflict probability

Palau

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Palestine

3.3% annual new-conflict probability

Panama

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Papua New Guinea

4.4% annual new-conflict probability

Paraguay

0.5% annual new-conflict probability

Peru

2.0% annual new-conflict probability

Philippines

11.6% annual new-conflict probability

Poland

0.8% annual new-conflict probability

Portugal

0.7% annual new-conflict probability

Qatar

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

Romania

2.1% annual new-conflict probability

Russia

15.6% annual new-conflict probability

Rwanda

10.1% annual new-conflict probability

Saint Kitts and Nevis

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Saint Lucia

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Saint Vincent

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Samoa

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

San Marino

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Sao Tome and Principe

0.7% annual new-conflict probability

Saudi Arabia

3.4% annual new-conflict probability

Senegal

9.3% annual new-conflict probability

Serbia

0.9% annual new-conflict probability

Seychelles

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Sierra Leone

2.8% annual new-conflict probability

Singapore

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Slovakia

0.5% annual new-conflict probability

Slovenia

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Solomon Islands

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Somalia

18.7% annual new-conflict probability

South Africa

5.8% annual new-conflict probability

South Korea

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

South Sudan

10.5% annual new-conflict probability

Spain

1.3% annual new-conflict probability

Sri Lanka

9.3% annual new-conflict probability

Sudan

25.5% annual new-conflict probability

Suriname

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Sweden

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Switzerland

0.3% annual new-conflict probability

Syria

50.2% annual new-conflict probability

Taiwan

0.6% annual new-conflict probability

Tajikistan

7.6% annual new-conflict probability

Tanzania

12.0% annual new-conflict probability

Thailand

5.0% annual new-conflict probability

Togo

6.7% annual new-conflict probability

Tonga

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Trinidad and Tobago

0.4% annual new-conflict probability

Tunisia

7.2% annual new-conflict probability

Turkey

18.4% annual new-conflict probability

Turkmenistan

1.1% annual new-conflict probability

Tuvalu

0.1% annual new-conflict probability

Uganda

13.3% annual new-conflict probability

Ukraine

8.9% annual new-conflict probability

United Arab Emirates

1.4% annual new-conflict probability

United Kingdom

1.0% annual new-conflict probability

United States

1.4% annual new-conflict probability

Uruguay

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Uzbekistan

3.5% annual new-conflict probability

Vanuatu

0.2% annual new-conflict probability

Venezuela

7.6% annual new-conflict probability

Vietnam

2.6% annual new-conflict probability

Yemen

8.8% annual new-conflict probability

Zambia

3.1% annual new-conflict probability

Zimbabwe

2.4% annual new-conflict probability