Angola

Angola’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 7.9%, a high risk. The country’s long civil war, which ended in 2002, left a legacy of regional grievances, armed political mobilisation, and uneven state reach. Dependence on oil, economic hardship, and contested political legitimacy can intensify tensions even though the central government has substantial security capacity.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific conflict development in Angola. The principal relevant actors are the Angolan state, opposition movements, and groups associated with separatist sentiment in Cabinda; instability in neighbouring parts of Central and Southern Africa remains a contextual concern, but fighting outside Angola does not itself constitute an onset there.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or socioeconomic grievances could overcome the government’s strong coercive and administrative control. A sustained crackdown, organised armed mobilisation, or cross-border attack reaching Angolan territory would raise risk; credible political accommodation, effective economic relief, and continued containment of separatist activity would lower it.