Silfio country intelligence · GAB
Gabon
0.7% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
2.59M
GDP
$21.43B
Currency
XAF
Capital
Libreville
Land area
267.67K km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Gabon is 0.7%, a minimal risk. The country has a history of politically driven unrest, including deadly violence after contested elections, but it has generally retained strong state capacity and avoided sustained civil war.
Recent reporting reviewed provides no specific evidence of organised armed mobilisation or an external military threat to Gabonese territory. The principal domestic actors are the transitional authorities and opposition networks; neighbouring states and regional organisations remain relevant mainly through diplomatic and security engagement. No prediction market was found for Gabon.
The largest uncertainty is whether political disputes could fracture the security forces or trigger prolonged unrest after a disputed transition or election. Risk would rise with armed defections, repeated lethal clashes, or mobilisation by organised opposition groups; it would fall with an orderly transition, credible elections, and continued security-force cohesion.
Strategic reasoning
- Gabon’s record of election-related violence, especially in 2016, shows that political competition can generate serious unrest, while its institutions and security apparatus have generally contained escalation.
- The August 2023 military takeover created a potential rupture among elites, but its largely controlled character and the absence of reported armed factionalisation support the minimal level for a new domestic conflict.
- Fighting by Gabonese personnel abroad would not qualify; the relevant risk is a new, sustained confrontation on Gabonese territory.
Critical indicators
- In August 2023, General Brice Oligui Nguema and senior officers overthrew President Ali Bongo after disputed election results. The takeover changed political control without producing a sustained armed confrontation inside Gabon.
- In August–September 2016, post-election protests and clashes in Libreville included attacks on the National Assembly and lethal violence. The episode remains evidence of mobilisation risk, but it did not develop into a lasting insurgency or civil war.
Probability trend
How the Gabon estimate has moved
Probability0.7%0.7%0.7%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Gabon.
Regional context
Gabon compared with its neighbours and region
Gabon ranks number 126 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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