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Silfio country intelligence

Gabon

Moderate risk3.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Gabon flag

Gabon facts

Population

2.59M

GDP

$21.43B

Currency

XAF

Capital

Libreville

Land area

267.67K km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Gabon

NEWS

Conflict probability

3.5%

Model base probability

3.0%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Gabon, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news highlights intense conflict between the US and Iran focused on the Strait of Hormuz, with no direct or indirect indications of instability or armed conflict risk in Gabon.
  • Regional conflict in Mali involving rebels and militants could suggest some regional instability in West Africa, but Mali is geographically and politically distinct from Gabon, with no spillover signals detected.
  • No reports of coups, insurgencies, or interstate tensions involving Gabon or its neighbors that would elevate the risk of new armed conflict onset on Gabonese soil.

Critical indicators

  • Mali rebels ambush army convoy, killing or capturing soldiers (regional instability in West Africa).
  • Escalation of US-Iran conflict around Strait of Hormuz (global geopolitical tension, but no direct link to Gabon).

Related coverage

Latest articles about Gabon

Updated July 20, 2026

npr.org · 2 days ago

The U.S. and Iran blow past red lines as they lurch back toward all-out war

The United States and Iran exchanged strikes aimed at infrastructure and military targets on Saturday as their battle over the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

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www.theguardian.com · 1 day ago

World Cup 2026 latest: Trump criticises Tuchel, buildup to France v England and Spain v Argentina final – as it happened | World Cup 2026 | The Guardian

Donald Trump criticised Thomas Tuchel for England’s semi-final loss

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aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports? | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is expected to build on the Iranian public, as well as global energy markets due to the US blockade.

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