Gabon

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Gabon is 0.6%, a minimal risk. Gabon has avoided sustained civil war or insurgency, while oil revenues, a relatively small population, and concentrated state authority provide substantial capacity to contain unrest. Political tensions remain relevant, including the August 2023 military coup that ended the Bongo family’s long rule, but the transition did not produce prolonged armed violence.

Recent reporting offers limited direct evidence of conflict on Gabonese territory. A September 5 report about an allegedly prevented coup attempt in Equatorial Guinea mentioned checks on contacts in Gabon among Fang communities, but this concerns events outside Gabon and does not establish an armed threat there. Reporting about Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s possible return to Gabon’s national football team is not an escalation signal.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition after the 2023 coup could fracture the security services or mobilise communities along regional and ethnic lines. Risk would rise most clearly if armed factions, mutinous units, or organised political groups began fighting inside Gabon; continued elite accommodation, effective security-force control, and an orderly political transition would support the minimal level.