Silfio country intelligence

São Tomé and Príncipe

Moderate risk4.5% annual probabilityrising trend

Population

240.25K

GDP

$981.29M

Currency

STN

Capital

São Tomé

Land area

964 km²

Official languages

Portuguese

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of São Tomé and Príncipe

NEWS

Conflict probability

4.5%

Model base probability

3.1%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

No prediction market data is available for Sao Tome and Principe armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
Recent news highlights a tense presidential election with incumbent Carlos Vila Nova seeking re-election, indicating potential for political instability during the electoral period.
The country has signed a military agreement with Russia, increasing international strategic interest and potentially raising the risk of external pressure or interference.
Sao Tome and Principe is a small, strategically located archipelago, which could be vulnerable to geopolitical tensions given the involvement of global powers.

Critical indicators

July 19, 2026: Presidential election with incumbent Carlos Vila Nova seeking a new term amid a competitive race.
Recent military agreement signed between Sao Tome and Principe and Russia, increasing geopolitical stakes.

Related coverage

Latest articles about São Tomé and Príncipe

Updated July 20, 2026

www.dw.com · 2 days ago

Sao Tome and Principe balances global powers

As voters head to the polls, Sao Tome and Principe is attracting international scrutiny. A military agreement with Russia has heightened interest in the strategically located archipelago.

Read source

amp.dw.com · 2 days ago

Amid elections, Sao Tome and Principe balances global powers

As voters head to the polls, Sao Tome and Principe is attracting international scrutiny. A military agreement with Russia has heightened interest in the strategically located archipelago.

Read source

www.france24.com · 18 hours ago

Sao Tome president faces party rival in polls

Voters in the Atlantic archipelago of Sao Tome and Principe, regarded as a model of democracy in Africa, headed to the polls on Sunday for a presidential election.

Read source