São Tomé and Príncipe

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in São Tomé and Príncipe is 0.7%, representing a minimal risk. The country’s small population, limited military capacity, island geography, and generally competitive political institutions constrain the ability of armed groups to organise and sustain violence. Its conflict history is limited: political crises have included attempted coups, but not prolonged civil war or insurgency.

Recent reporting provides no specific indication of an imminent armed confrontation involving the government, opposition actors, neighbouring states, or organised armed groups on São Tomé and Príncipe’s territory. No prediction market is available for this country. The absence of a current conflict theatre and the lack of known active insurgent organisations are important stabilising factors.

The main uncertainty is whether a severe political or economic crisis could trigger military intervention or violent unrest that escalates beyond isolated incidents. Risk would rise most clearly with an attempted coup, sustained clashes between security forces and political factions, or an external attack; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through constitutional processes.