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Silfio country intelligence

South Sudan

High risk12.0% annual probabilitystable trend
South Sudan flag

South Sudan facts

Population

12.19M

GDP

N/A

Currency

SSP

Capital

Juba

Land area

619.75K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of South Sudan

NEWS

Conflict probability

12%

Model base probability

8.3%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available, so adjustment relies solely on recent news signals.
  • South Sudan remains highly unstable with ongoing humanitarian appeals and worsening conflict conditions, indicating a fragile security environment prone to new conflict onsets.
  • The planned inter-party dialogue in August suggests recognition of instability but also signals unresolved tensions that could escalate into new armed conflict.
  • Regional instability in neighboring Sudan, with ongoing violent conflict and foreign involvement, increases the risk of spillover or new interstate conflict on South Sudan’s territory.

Critical indicators

  • South Sudan bishop’s urgent humanitarian appeal amid worsening conflict (July 16, 2026)
  • Scheduled inter-party dialogue in South Sudan in August 2026 amid ongoing instability
  • Continued violent conflict and foreign power involvement in neighboring Sudan, raising regional spillover risk

Related coverage

Latest articles about South Sudan

Updated July 20, 2026

theworkersrights.com · 2 days ago

Sudan Regional Conflict: How Foreign Powers Shape Crisis!

Sudan regional conflict is shaped by competing foreign powers, influencing peace efforts, political stability and the country's future direction today.

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peacelink.it · 3 days ago

Still no sanctions against the United Arab Emirates that arm the bloody conflict in Sudan

PeaceLink English - Albert, international pacifist bulletin - No sanctions have been adopted against the government of the United Arab Emirates that supports the ruthless Rapid Support Forces militias. As the United Arab Emirates are firmly linked to NATO, the sanctions concern individuals, ...

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allafrica.com · 3 days ago

Sudan: Three Years of War in Sudan - a Crisis the World Can't Ignore - allAfrica.com

Three years into the war in Sudan, survivors and human rights defenders are struggling to respond to overwhelming needs amid widespread violence, displacement, and limited global attention. As horrific violations and abuses intensify and those documenting them become targets, calls for ...

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