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Silfio country intelligence · SSD
South Sudan
10.5% annual new-conflict probabilityHow to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
12.19M
GDP
$12B
Currency
SSP
Capital
Juba
Land area
619.75K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
South Sudan has a 10.5% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, recurrent communal and political violence, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and fragile peace arrangements leave it vulnerable to renewed fighting between domestic factions.
Recent reporting describes fighting that erupted across South Sudan last year and identifies Akobo in the east as a continuing flashpoint, while the country prepares for elections. Threats against Sudanese pastors in a refugee camp also show how regional conflict and extremist violence can affect South Sudanese territory, although the Sudan war itself is not a new conflict onset in South Sudan.
The largest uncertainty is whether the peace agreement and election process can contain rivalry among political and armed actors. Renewed clashes around Akobo, political breakdown, or cross-border spillover from Sudan would raise risk; credible power-sharing, effective security arrangements, and orderly elections would lower it.
Strategic reasoning
- South Sudan’s previous civil war and repeated localised violence show that political disputes can quickly become armed confrontations, particularly where state authority and economic resources are weak.
- The strongest escalatory signal is renewed fighting around Akobo amid a fragile peace process; the main stabilising possibility is that elections and power-sharing arrangements keep rival forces from mobilising.
- Violence already underway is context rather than a new-onset event, but its persistence increases the chance that a fresh rupture or escalation occurs elsewhere on South Sudanese territory.
Critical indicators
- Reporting published in 2026 describes fighting that began across South Sudan in 2025 after the peace agreement weakened, with Akobo in the east among the principal flashpoints and thousands displaced. This indicates continuing pressure on the political settlement and local security arrangements.
- In October 2026, reports said two Sudanese pastors in a South Sudan refugee camp faced death threats following an attack by Muslim extremists earlier in the year. The episode highlights the exposure of South Sudanese territory and displaced communities to armed-group and regional-security spillovers.
Probability trend
How the South Sudan estimate has moved
Probability10.5%10.5%10.5%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP · Data to 31 Aug 2026
South Sudan: Government
254Deaths (last 12 months)- Opposition
- SPLM/A - IO
- Started
- 19 Apr 2025
Regional context
South Sudan compared with its neighbours and region
South Sudan ranks number 33 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
pulitzercenter.org
As South Sudan Plans for Elections, a Town Counts the Cost of War | Pulitzer Center
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