South Sudan

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in South Sudan is 12.5%, a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, communal violence, weak institutions, widespread weapons availability, poverty, corruption, and limited state capacity continue to support exposure to renewed internal conflict. Fragile political arrangements and delayed progress toward credible elections add pressure.

Recent reporting highlights a deadly attack on a military base in Warrap, northeast South Sudan, on 5 September, in which 16 military and police personnel and four civilians were killed. The attack, alongside an “unprecedented” drought emergency, puts additional stress on communities and the government ahead of the planned December elections. No prediction market was available.

The largest uncertainty is whether the Warrap violence remains a localised incident or connects to wider political, communal, or armed-group mobilisation. Risk would rise if attacks spread across states, target security forces or civilians repeatedly, or disrupt the election process; credible implementation of the peace arrangement, effective protection of communities, and improved management of drought-related resource disputes would lower pressure.