Sudan

Sudan has a 25.5% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, representing a critical risk. Its long history of civil wars, rebellions, coups and weak state institutions leaves a high propensity for renewed organised violence, while economic collapse and fragmented security authority make containment difficult. The ongoing Sudanese war is not itself a new onset, but it demonstrates the country’s persistent exposure to armed conflict.

Recent reporting shows the army–Rapid Support Forces (RSF) war continuing to intensify rather than move towards settlement. A drone strike on 17 October in Nyala reportedly killed 30 people and wounded 47, while the UN says fighting and hunger are spreading across Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile. The army, RSF, external supporters and neighbouring states remain important actors. A Polymarket contract gives an 11.0% implied probability of a ceasefire by 31 December 2026.

The largest uncertainty is whether the present war remains geographically contained or further fragments into new armed confrontations involving local forces, rival authorities or neighbouring actors. A credible, monitored ceasefire and political settlement would lower risk; renewed territorial offensives, militia mobilisation, cross-border attacks reaching Sudan, or a breakdown of remaining state control would raise it.