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Silfio country intelligence

Sudan

Critical risk20.0% annual probabilityrising trend
Sudan flag

Sudan facts

Population

51.66M

GDP

$60.16B

Currency

SDG

Capital

Khartoum

Land area

1.89M km²

Official languages

Arabic, English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Sudan

MARKET

Conflict probability

20%

Model base probability

9.1%

Risk category

Critical

Strategic reasoning

  • The Polymarket prediction market on a Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026, shows a 25% probability of a ceasefire within about 5.5 months, implying a 75% probability that the civil war continues through that date. Annualizing this "No ceasefire" probability over 12 months suggests a high likelihood of ongoing conflict or new conflict onset within the year.
  • Since the market focuses on ceasefire (an end to conflict), the 75% "No" implies a strong expectation of continued or new armed conflict onset in the near term, which is a direct signal of elevated risk beyond the structural baseline of ~9%.
  • News corroborates ongoing severe instability and violence, with international powers intensifying diplomatic and military pressure, and warnings of sieges and atrocities (e.g., El-Obeid siege), indicating a volatile environment prone to new conflict outbreaks or escalations.
  • Given the structural model’s tendency to understate near-term risk and the strong market signal, a significant upward adjustment is warranted, but not near certainty since the market does not specify new conflict onset distinctly from continuation.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket market shows 75% probability that no ceasefire will be reached by end of 2026, implying ongoing or new conflict risk.
  • Reports of siege and escalating violence in El-Obeid, with international calls to prevent massacres and arms embargo demands.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Sudan

Updated July 20, 2026

theworkersrights.com · 2 days ago

Sudan Regional Conflict: How Foreign Powers Shape Crisis!

Sudan regional conflict is shaped by competing foreign powers, influencing peace efforts, political stability and the country's future direction today.

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bloomberg.com · 2 days ago

Global Powers Ramp Up Efforts to Avert Another Massacre in Sudan - Bloomberg

The Group of Seven nations called on rebel forces in Sudan to halt any actions that may lead to atrocities in the city of El-Obeid, adding to growing international pressure to avoid another massacre in the North African nation.

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allafrica.com · 3 days ago

Sudan: Three Years of War in Sudan - a Crisis the World Can't Ignore - allAfrica.com

Three years into the war in Sudan, survivors and human rights defenders are struggling to respond to overwhelming needs amid widespread violence, displacement, and limited global attention. As horrific violations and abuses intensify and those documenting them become targets, calls for ...

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