Eritrea

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Eritrea is 10.5%, a high risk. Eritrea’s history of prolonged war with Ethiopia, unresolved border tensions, highly militarised governance, and limited political institutions support continued vulnerability to renewed violence on its territory.

Recent reporting links Ethiopia’s stalled Tigray disarmament and continuing clashes to wider tensions involving Eritrea. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s calls for commercial access to the Red Sea, alongside historical claims concerning Assab, are especially sensitive for Asmara because control of the coast is central to Eritrean sovereignty. Reports of Ethiopian military activity near Sudan and regional involvement in Sudan’s war further increase the number of actors and possible escalation pathways.

The largest uncertainty is whether Ethiopia’s access demands and the Tigray dispute remain political or develop into direct military pressure on Eritrea. Risk would rise most clearly with Ethiopian force movements toward the Eritrean border, renewed Eritrea–Ethiopia clashes, or a breakdown of restraint around Tigray; sustained implementation of the peace process and de-escalation of Red Sea rhetoric would lower the immediate danger.