Silfio country intelligence · SOM
Somalia
18.7% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
19.65M
GDP
$13B
Currency
SOS
Capital
Mogadishu
Land area
637.66K km²
Official languages
Arabic, Somali
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 18.7%, placing Somalia in the high risk category. The country’s prolonged civil war, weak state institutions, limited economic capacity, fragmented authority, and recurring clan and political violence leave it highly exposed to a new conflict onset on its territory. Al-Shabaab’s long-running insurgency further reduces the resilience of national and regional institutions.
Recent reporting highlights several active pressure points. Somalia’s election commission announced parliamentary and presidential elections for April and May 2027, while critics warned that the process could intensify conflict in an already fragmented political environment. Federal and regional forces are also mobilising in Bay after towns were reportedly seized by forces loyal to Laftagareen, and foreign rivalries are adding pressure to the domestic crisis.
The largest uncertainty is whether electoral competition and disputes between federal and regional authorities remain political or develop into sustained armed confrontation. Risk would rise if troop deployments in Bay produce fighting or if election disputes trigger coordinated violence; it would fall if authorities reach an enforceable political settlement, de-escalate deployments, and preserve the election timetable.
Strategic reasoning
- Somalia’s history of civil war, clan-based mobilisation, weak governance, and persistent insurgency means political disputes can rapidly become armed contests over territory and authority.
- The planned 2027 elections and reported mobilisation in Bay are the clearest escalation signals, while negotiated coordination between federal and regional authorities would be the strongest stabilising factor.
- Fighting already underway against Islamist militants is context rather than a new onset; the key risk is a separate expansion into sustained conflict among domestic political and regional actors.
Critical indicators
- On 16 October 2026, RFI reported that Somalia’s election commission had scheduled parliamentary and presidential elections for April and May 2027. Critics warned that the timetable could deepen conflict amid fragmentation and the ongoing Islamist insurgency.
- Recent reporting from Bay said Somali forces were preparing to retake towns seized by forces loyal to Laftagareen, indicating mobilisation between federal and regional actors and a potential pathway to new domestic armed clashes.
- A recent Horseed Media assessment said sharpened foreign rivalries were compounding Somalia’s political crisis, raising the risk that domestic disputes could become more entrenched and militarised.
Probability trend
How the Somalia estimate has moved
Probability19.3%19.0%18.7%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP · Data to 31 Aug 2026
Somalia: Government
3,454Deaths (last 12 months)- Opposition
- Al-Shabaab
- Forces of Laftagareen
- SFC
- South West State of Somalia
- Started
- 24 Oct 2006
Somalia: Islamic State
33Deaths (last 12 months)- Opposition
- IS
- Started
- 1 Feb 2025
Regional context
Somalia compared with its neighbours and region
Somalia ranks number 15 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
www.rfi.fr
Somalia sets date for May presidential election amid ongoing Islamist insurgency - RFI
Read source