Somalia

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Somalia is 24.5%, a critical risk. Somalia’s long history of civil war, insurgency, weak state institutions, limited economic capacity, and fragmented security authority leaves disputes vulnerable to escalation, particularly between federal institutions, regional administrations, militias, and al-Shabaab.

Recent reporting shows several actors operating amid heightened insecurity. Government forces and militias fought around Baidoa, while officials discussed transferring full security responsibility from African Union troops to Somali forces. An airstrike near Doolow injured former commander Mahad Abdirahman Aden, prompting protests, and Danab commandos separately targeted al-Shabaab positions in Bay. These developments indicate pressure across both political and counter-insurgency fronts.

The largest uncertainty is whether clashes involving regional forces and political factions remain localised or develop into sustained confrontations between organised armed actors. Risk would rise if fighting spreads beyond Baidoa or Doolow, federal and regional forces mobilise against one another, or the AU transition produces security gaps; it would fall if negotiations contain disputes and Somali forces assume responsibilities without major defections or territorial losses.