Tanzania

Tanzania’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 11.3%, a high risk. The country has generally avoided sustained nationwide armed conflict, but its history includes the 1964 Zanzibar Revolution and periodic politically driven violence. Political tensions, uneven institutional trust, and exposure to insecurity in the wider Great Lakes and eastern African region support a meaningful risk level despite Tanzania’s considerable state capacity.

Recent reporting provides limited direct evidence of fighting inside Tanzania. The strongest development is Air Tanzania’s 4 September suspension of flights between Dar es Salaam and Moscow after Ukraine warned that Russian airspace was unsafe because of nightly drone attacks. This concerns an overseas war and does not itself represent conflict on Tanzanian territory; Tanzania’s relevant exposure comes mainly from its regional neighbourhood and domestic political fault lines.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or regional pressures could develop into sustained armed mobilisation inside the country, rather than remaining protests, isolated violence, or external security concerns. Risk would rise with organised attacks or armed mobilisation in Tanzania, especially in Zanzibar or near its borders; it would fall with sustained political calm, effective security management, and no spillover from conflicts in neighbouring states.