Tanzania

Tanzania has an 12.0% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, representing a high risk. The country has generally avoided sustained mainland armed conflict, but the 1964 Zanzibar Revolution and subsequent episodes of political tension show that concentrated disputes over power and autonomy can become violent. Institutional capacity and state control remain important protections, while unresolved political grievances provide a persistent source of exposure.

Recent reporting shows no confirmed armed mobilisation or active domestic fighting. On 19 October, Deputy Minister for Information, Culture, Arts and Sports ordered public institutions to agree anti-piracy measures within two weeks at the 33rd Tanzania International Book Fair. The development points to assertive administrative enforcement, not an armed-conflict onset; no prediction market was available.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or constitutional disputes, particularly involving Zanzibar or contentious national political competition, could overwhelm established security and administrative controls. Risk would rise with organised armed mobilisation, sustained politically motivated violence, or a breakdown in relations between central authorities and Zanzibar. Risk would lower with demonstrable political accommodation, peaceful dispute resolution, and continued effective state control.