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Silfio country intelligence

Tanzania

High risk5.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Tanzania flag

Tanzania facts

Population

70.55M

GDP

$90.14B

Currency

TZS

Capital

Dodoma

Land area

945.09K km²

Official languages

English, Swahili

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Tanzania

NEWS

Conflict probability

5.5%

Model base probability

4.7%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Tanzania, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Regional instability in Africa remains a concern, with reports highlighting the increasing complexity of conflicts and the challenges of mediation on the continent, suggesting a fragile security environment.
  • Although no direct conflict or imminent threat to Tanzania is reported, Egypt’s interest in land reclamation projects in Tanzania could indicate rising geopolitical competition or tensions over resources, which might elevate risk marginally.
  • Broader regional security issues, including terrorism in the Sahel and overlapping armed groups in Central Africa, increase the general risk environment in East Africa, potentially affecting Tanzania indirectly.

Critical indicators

  • Egypt eyes land reclamation projects in Tanzania (potential geopolitical friction).
  • Reports on the increasing difficulty of African mediation and rising complexity of conflicts on the continent.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Tanzania

Updated July 20, 2026

thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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allafrica.com · 2 days ago

Africa: Can Africa Reinvent Mediation Before Its Wars Outrun Diplomacy? - allAfrica.com

If the first challenge confronting African diplomacy is that peace negotiations are becoming increasingly transactional, and the second is that modern wars have outgrown traditional mediation, then the third and perhaps most difficult question is this: what should replace the old model?

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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