Kenya

Kenya’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 6.5%, a high risk. The main supporting factors are its history of serious post-election violence, recurrent communal clashes, militant attacks by al-Shabaab, and persistent political and socioeconomic pressures that can weaken local security and institutional control.

Recent reporting shows heightened international attention to Kenya’s security environment rather than a new conflict on Kenyan territory. The USS Ross, a US guided-missile destroyer, arrived in Mombasa on 5 September for a scheduled port visit, following recent British naval activity and reflecting Kenya’s importance to maritime security. Domestic reporting has also cited concerns about insecurity and political violence, including suspected goon activity. Principal actors include the Kenyan state, political networks, local armed groups, and al-Shabaab, whose regional activity remains relevant to Kenya’s exposure.

The largest uncertainty is whether political confrontation or militant activity could develop into sustained, organised violence inside Kenya. Risk would rise with lethal clashes around elections or protests, coordinated al-Shabaab attacks, or communal mobilisation; it would fall with effective containment of political violence, credible policing, and continued control of militant infiltration and local armed mobilisation.