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Silfio country intelligence

Kenya

High risk11.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Kenya flag

Kenya facts

Population

57.53M

GDP

$135.94B

Currency

KES

Capital

Nairobi

Land area

580.37K km²

Official languages

English, Swahili

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Kenya

NEWS

Conflict probability

11%

Model base probability

9.2%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Kenya, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news is heavily focused on the Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran tensions, with no direct or indirect indications of instability or conflict onset in Kenya.
  • However, the global geopolitical environment is tense, with increased risk of regional conflicts and spillover effects in various parts of the world, including Africa.
  • Given the structural model’s tendency to understate near-term risk and the general elevated global instability, a modest upward adjustment is warranted to reflect potential indirect risks (e.g., regional instability, refugee flows, or proxy conflicts) that could affect Kenya.

Critical indicators

  • Intensified Russia-Ukraine war with major missile attacks on Kyiv and other cities.
  • Escalation of US-Iran hostilities with recent attacks and counterstrikes.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Kenya

Updated July 20, 2026

abcnews.com · 3 days ago

Ukraine's deep strikes mean 'significant change' for war, former Russian PM says - ABC News

Once one of the most powerful men in Russia, Mikhail Kasyanov now lives in exile in Latvia, his name on a Kremlin list of "extremists and terrorists."

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independent.co.uk · 9 minutes ago

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian oil depots hit after Putin launches ballistic missile attack on Kyiv | The Independent

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in · Swipe for next article

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abc.net.au · 14 hours ago

Russia unleashes one of biggest ballistic missile attacks of the Ukraine war, Kyiv says - ABC News

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia battered Ukraine's capital Kyiv overnight into Sunday local time, with one of its biggest ballistic missile barrages of the war.

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