Silfio country intelligence · KEN
Kenya
11.9% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
57.53M
GDP
$135.94B
Currency
KES
Capital
Nairobi
Land area
580.37K km²
Official languages
English, Swahili
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Kenya faces an 11.9% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, representing a high risk. The main long-run drivers are the country’s history of politically mobilised violence, including the 2007–08 post-election crisis, recurring electoral unrest, communal tensions, and persistent insecurity linked to al-Shabaab and armed criminal networks.
Recent reporting does not identify a new domestic armed confrontation. Kenya’s economy grew 5.1% in the second quarter to June despite Iran-war price shocks and below-average rainfall, indicating continued economic capacity. The principal potential actors remain political factions and mobilised supporters, al-Shabaab, local communal or criminal armed groups, and state security forces; no prediction market was available.
The largest uncertainty is whether political competition, economic pressure, or a major security incident could combine into sustained organised violence rather than protests or isolated attacks. Risk would rise after disputed political results, significant elite mobilisation, or a substantial al-Shabaab attack inside Kenya; credible political accommodation, effective policing, and continued economic resilience would lower the likelihood of a new onset.
Strategic reasoning
- Kenya’s record of post-election violence shows that political disputes can rapidly become sustained armed violence involving organised civilian networks and security forces. Recurrent communal conflict and militant attacks provide additional pathways to escalation.
- The strongest stabilising signal is continued economic growth, while the principal escalatory concern is the possibility that political mobilisation or a major militant attack could transform localised unrest into wider violence. Fighting involving Kenyan forces abroad would not itself constitute a new onset inside Kenya.
Critical indicators
- In reporting on 2026 economic performance, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said the economy grew 5.1% in the second quarter to June despite Iran-war price shocks and below-average rainfall. This supports state and household resilience but does not remove the risk associated with political and security shocks.
- During the 2007–08 post-election crisis, disputed results triggered organised violence across several Kenyan regions, killing more than 1,000 people and displacing hundreds of thousands. That precedent keeps electoral mobilisation and contested legitimacy central to assessing new-onset risk.
Probability trend
How the Kenya estimate has moved
Probability12.1%12.0%11.9%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Kenya.
Regional context
Kenya compared with its neighbours and region
Kenya ranks number 30 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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