Mozambique

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Mozambique is 26.9%, a critical risk. The country’s prolonged insurgency in Cabo Delgado, the 2021 assault on Palma, unresolved governance weaknesses, limited state capacity, economic strain, and the high value of northern gas projects support continued vulnerability to renewed or geographically expanded violence.

Recent reporting keeps the northern insurgency central to Mozambique’s security outlook, including discussion of the gas investment programme, the economy, and what to monitor in 2026. The government has also called for coordinated provincial administration to prevent institutional conflicts. State security forces, foreign or private military partners, insurgents linked to Islamic State, provincial authorities, and energy companies remain the principal actors shaping escalation risks.

The largest uncertainty is whether insurgent activity remains contained in Cabo Delgado or generates a genuinely new conflict onset elsewhere in Mozambique. Risk would rise with a major attack outside the established theatre, a breakdown in provincial governance, or renewed disruption around Palma and gas facilities; sustained security coordination, effective protection of civilians, and containment of insurgent operations would lower the risk of such a new onset.