Zambia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Zambia is 3.1%, representing a moderate risk. Zambia has generally avoided civil war, insurgency, and interstate warfare since independence, and has maintained comparatively resilient political institutions and repeated electoral transfers of power. These factors constrain the likelihood that political disputes become sustained armed violence.

Recent reporting points to heightened political tension after highly contested elections. Coverage describes post-election violence and a severe diplomatic dispute with the United Nations, while Washington has expressed concern about a crackdown despite maintaining engagement with Lusaka. The principal risk would come from confrontation between state security forces, governing authorities, and opposition supporters; no organised armed group or foreign state is currently reported as preparing an attack on Zambian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether electoral grievances and pressure on opposition actors remain political or develop into sustained violence. Risk would rise if demonstrations produced repeated lethal clashes, opposition organisations were driven underground, or security-force defections and organised armed mobilisation emerged. It would be supported at a lower level by credible investigations, negotiated political accommodation, and continued functioning of courts and electoral institutions.