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Silfio country intelligence

Zambia

High risk7.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Zambia flag

Zambia facts

Population

21.91M

GDP

$28.88B

Currency

ZMW

Capital

Lusaka

Land area

752.61K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Zambia

NEWS

Conflict probability

7%

Model base probability

5.6%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Zambia, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Regional instability in Central Africa is increasing, with reports of overlapping state and non-state armed groups making conflict harder to resolve, which raises the risk of spillover or new conflict onset in neighboring countries including Zambia.
  • While the major current conflicts and tensions focus on the Middle East (US-Iran war) and Gulf region, these do not directly implicate Zambia, so no interstate conflict risk increase is evident from those.
  • No direct reports of internal unrest or armed conflict onset in Zambia itself, but the regional security environment is deteriorating, which structurally supports a modest upward revision from the baseline.

Critical indicators

  • Analysis of Central Africa’s shifting alliances between armies and armed groups increasing insecurity and conflict complexity (allAfrica.com, 2026-07-17)
  • Regional diplomatic challenges and the limitations of traditional mediation in Africa’s conflicts (allAfrica.com, 2026-07-17)

Related coverage

Latest articles about Zambia

Updated July 20, 2026

france.news-pravda.com · 2 days ago

The Mandela they want you to forget: The strategist who defied the West - Pravda France

By rejecting proxy politics and demanding an equitable seat at the global decision-making table, the continent is realizing Mandela’s vision When the UN established Nelson Mandela International Day in 2009, the anti-apartheid...

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allafrica.com · 2 days ago

Africa: Can Africa Reinvent Mediation Before Its Wars Outrun Diplomacy? - allAfrica.com

If the first challenge confronting African diplomacy is that peace negotiations are becoming increasingly transactional, and the second is that modern wars have outgrown traditional mediation, then the third and perhaps most difficult question is this: what should replace the old model?

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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