Silfio country intelligence · ZMB
Zambia
3.1% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
21.91M
GDP
$28.88B
Currency
ZMW
Capital
Lusaka
Land area
752.61K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 3.1%, making this a moderate risk. Zambia’s long record of avoiding civil war, relatively cohesive national institutions, and repeated transfers of power through elections support a low likelihood of a new armed conflict. However, economic pressures, political contestation, and occasional unrest leave some exposure to escalation.
Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific evidence of an armed mobilisation, insurgent campaign, coup attempt, or cross-border attack reaching Zambia. The principal relevant actors are the government and security forces, opposition parties, and organised groups able to mobilise around political or economic grievances. Zambia’s neighbours and regional organisations remain important external stabilising influences.
The largest uncertainty is whether a contested political episode, severe economic shock, or security-force confrontation could cause protests to become sustained armed violence. Risk would rise with organised attacks, defections from the security services, or armed activity crossing into Zambia; it would fall with credible political dialogue, orderly elections, and effective containment of unrest without significant abuses.
Strategic reasoning
- Zambia has avoided sustained internal armed conflict since independence in 1964, and its political institutions have generally managed competition without insurgency or civil war. This history supports resilience while leaving residual exposure to crisis-driven escalation.
- The strongest stabilising factor is the absence of supplied evidence of an active armed organisation or foreign military threat on Zambian territory. The main escalation pathway would be domestic political unrest combining with economic grievances and coercive security-force responses.
Critical indicators
- Since the return to multiparty politics in 1991, Zambia has experienced competitive elections and changes of government without a new armed conflict. This established pattern supports the capacity of political institutions to absorb serious disputes.
- The August 2021 general election produced a change of president from Edgar Lungu to Hakainde Hichilema through a largely electoral process. It remains relevant evidence that major political transitions can occur without sustained armed violence.
Probability trend
How the Zambia estimate has moved
Probability3.1%3.1%3.1%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Zambia.
Regional context
Zambia compared with its neighbours and region
Zambia ranks number 75 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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