Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe faces a 2.5% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, a low risk. The level reflects a history of politically driven violence, including severe election-related unrest in 2008 and 2018, the 2017 military-backed transition, and enduring economic pressures, institutional fragility, and security-force involvement in politics.

Recent reporting is dominated by routine regional sporting activity rather than fighting or mobilisation. Zimbabwe is competing against South Africa and Namibia in the T20I Tri-Series in Windhoek, with South Africa reaching the 6 September final against Zimbabwe. No prediction market is available. These developments indicate normal cross-border engagement and provide no direct signal of an impending armed confrontation inside Zimbabwe.

The largest uncertainty is whether political contestation, economic deterioration, or a succession crisis could again produce organised violence involving state forces, opposition networks, or local armed actors. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained clashes, military intervention in domestic politics, or coordinated attacks inside Zimbabwe; it would fall with orderly political management, continued civilian control, and the absence of organised armed mobilisation.