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Silfio country intelligence

Zimbabwe

High risk6.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Zimbabwe flag

Zimbabwe facts

Population

16.95M

GDP

$51.22B

Currency

BWP

Capital

Harare

Land area

390.76K km²

Official languages

Chewa, Chibarwe, English, Kalanga, Khoisan, Ndau, Northern Ndebele, Shona, Sotho, Tonga, Tsonga, Tswana, Venda, Xhosa, Zimbabwean Sign Language

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Zimbabwe

NEWS

Conflict probability

6%

Model base probability

4.9%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Zimbabwe, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news from Zimbabwe highlights increasing domestic repression and political tensions, such as the editorial noting the "iron fist replaces the rule of law" and violent state responses to critics, indicating rising internal instability.
  • No direct reports of new armed conflict or imminent coups, but the political environment suggests elevated risk of new internal conflict onset.
  • Regional instability in Africa and shifting alliances in Central Africa increase the general risk environment, which can spill over into Zimbabwe.

Critical indicators

  • Editorial comment on state violence against critics in Zimbabwe indicating rising internal repression (The Standard, 2026-07-19).
  • Regional instability and overlapping armed groups in Central Africa increasing insecurity risks (allAfrica.com, 2026-07-17).

Related coverage

Latest articles about Zimbabwe

Updated July 20, 2026

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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france.news-pravda.com · 2 days ago

The Mandela they want you to forget: The strategist who defied the West - Pravda France

By rejecting proxy politics and demanding an equitable seat at the global decision-making table, the continent is realizing Mandela’s vision When the UN established Nelson Mandela International Day in 2009, the anti-apartheid...

Read source

zerohedge.com · 2 days ago

Why Washington Is Challenging The International Criminal Court<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

...this is not merely a legal technicality. It goes to the heart of democratic accountability...

Read source