How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.

RankCountryRisk levelTrendNew conflict

01EthiopiaCriticalrising56.3%02SyriaCritical→stable50.2%03IranCritical→stable41.6%04IndiaCritical→stable41.4%05ChadCritical→stable35.6%06PakistanCritical→stable34.9%07EritreaCriticalrising29.3%08AfghanistanCriticalrising29.2%09BangladeshCritical→stable27.8%10MyanmarCritical→stable25.9%11MozambiqueCritical→stable25.7%12SudanCritical→stable25.5%13BurundiCritical→stable24.3%14DR CongoCritical→stable22.3%15SomaliaHigh→stable18.7%16TurkeyHigh→stable18.4%17LibyaHigh→stable18.3%18IraqHigh→stable18.0%19NigerHigh→stable17.9%20EgyptHigh→stable16.5%21NigeriaHigh→stable16.3%22AzerbaijanHigh→stable16.0%23RussiaHigh→stable15.6%24JordanHighfalling14.8%25AngolaHigh→stable14.0%26MaliHigh→stable14.0%27UgandaHigh→stable13.3%28LebanonHigh→stable12.2%29TanzaniaHigh→stable12.0%30KenyaHigh→stable11.9%31PhilippinesHigh→stable11.6%32Central African RepublicHigh→stable11.5%33South SudanHigh→stable10.5%34IndonesiaHigh→stable10.1%35RwandaHigh→stable10.1%36AlgeriaHigh→stable10.0%37CambodiaHighfalling9.9%38Sri LankaHigh→stable9.3%39SenegalHigh→stable9.3%40UkraineHigh→stable8.9%41KuwaitHigh→stable8.9%42YemenHigh→stable8.8%43MexicoHigh→stable8.7%44VenezuelaHigh→stable7.6%45TajikistanHigh→stable7.6%46Burkina FasoHigh→stable7.3%47TunisiaHigh→stable7.2%48ChinaHigh→stable7.2%49TogoHigh→stable6.7%50CameroonHigh→stable6.7%51HaitiHigh→stable6.2%52GeorgiaHigh→stable6.1%53LiberiaHigh→stable6.0%54CongoHigh→stable5.9%55South AfricaHigh→stable5.8%56Ivory CoastHigh→stable5.6%57NepalHigh→stable5.3%58ThailandHigh→stable5.0%59MoroccoHigh→stable5.0%60MadagascarModerate→stable4.6%61IsraelModerate→stable4.6%62Papua New GuineaModerate→stable4.4%63MoldovaModeraterising4.0%64DjiboutiModerate→stable3.9%65GuineaModerate→stable3.8%66MauritaniaModerate→stable3.6%67BeninModerate→stable3.6%68UzbekistanModerate→stable3.5%69Saudi ArabiaModeraterising3.4%70GhanaModerate→stable3.3%71BrazilModerate→stable3.2%72BahrainModeratefalling3.2%73MalawiModerate→stable3.1%74ZambiaModerate→stable3.1%75EcuadorModerate→stable3.0%76Sierra LeoneLow→stable2.8%77KyrgyzstanLow→stable2.8%78North KoreaLow→stable2.7%79VietnamLow→stable2.6%80LaosLow→stable2.4%81LesothoLow→stable2.4%82ZimbabweLow→stable2.4%83Guinea-BissauLow→stable2.3%84ComorosLow→stable2.3%85RomaniaLow→stable2.1%86MalaysiaLow→stable2.1%87Bosnia and HerzegovinaLow→stable2.0%88PeruLow→stable2.0%89GuatemalaLow→stable2.0%90BelarusLow→stable1.8%91HondurasLow→stable1.7%92ColombiaLow→stable1.6%93EswatiniLow→stable1.5%94CubaLow→stable1.5%95United Arab EmiratesLow→stable1.4%96NicaraguaLow→stable1.4%97United StatesLow→stable1.4%98OmanLowrising1.3%99FranceLow→stable1.3%100GambiaLow→stable1.3%101SpainLow→stable1.3%102ArmeniaLow→stable1.2%103El SalvadorLow→stable1.2%104North MacedoniaLow→stable1.2%105East TimorLow→stable1.1%106TurkmenistanLow→stable1.1%107KazakhstanLow→stable1.1%108KosovoLow→stable1.0%109United KingdomLow→stable1.0%110AlbaniaMinimal→stable0.9%111JamaicaMinimal→stable0.9%112BoliviaMinimal→stable0.9%113SerbiaMinimal→stable0.9%114BulgariaMinimal→stable0.9%115ArgentinaMinimal→stable0.9%116CroatiaMinimal→stable0.8%117ItalyMinimal→stable0.8%118PolandMinimal→stable0.8%119MongoliaMinimal→stable0.8%120GreeceMinimal→stable0.8%121GermanyMinimal→stable0.8%122Equatorial GuineaMinimal→stable0.8%123PortugalMinimal→stable0.7%124Sao Tome and PrincipeMinimal→stable0.7%125GabonMinimal→stable0.7%126HungaryMinimal→stable0.7%127TaiwanMinimal→stable0.6%128BotswanaMinimal→stable0.6%129Dominican RepublicMinimal→stable0.6%130MauritiusMinimal→stable0.6%131South KoreaMinimal→stable0.6%132QatarMinimal→stable0.6%133NamibiaMinimal→stable0.6%134JapanMinimal→stable0.6%135ParaguayMinimal→stable0.5%136SlovakiaMinimal→stable0.5%137MaldivesMinimal→stable0.5%138GrenadaMinimal→stable0.4%139AustriaMinimal→stable0.4%140MontenegroMinimal→stable0.4%141Trinidad and TobagoMinimal→stable0.4%142ChileMinimal→stable0.4%143BelgiumMinimal→stable0.4%144BhutanMinimal→stable0.4%145FijiMinimal→stable0.4%146Cape VerdeMinimal→stable0.4%147Czech RepublicMinimal→stable0.4%148SingaporeMinimal→stable0.4%149SwedenMinimal→stable0.3%150PanamaMinimal→stable0.3%151NetherlandsMinimal→stable0.3%152LatviaMinimal→stable0.3%153EstoniaMinimal→stable0.3%154Costa RicaMinimal→stable0.3%155BelizeMinimal→stable0.3%156CyprusMinimal→stable0.3%157LithuaniaMinimal→stable0.3%158MaltaMinimal→stable0.3%159FinlandMinimal→stable0.3%160SwitzerlandMinimal→stable0.3%161SloveniaMinimal→stable0.3%162GuyanaMinimal→stable0.3%163Solomon IslandsMinimal→stable0.2%164DenmarkMinimal→stable0.2%165NorwayMinimal→stable0.2%166AustraliaMinimal→stable0.2%167IrelandMinimal→stable0.2%168CanadaMinimal→stable0.2%169BruneiMinimal→stable0.2%170VanuatuMinimal→stable0.2%171UruguayMinimal→stable0.2%172KiribatiMinimal→stable0.2%173SeychellesMinimal→stable0.2%174MicronesiaMinimal→stable0.2%175SamoaMinimal→stable0.2%176New ZealandMinimal→stable0.2%177IcelandMinimal→stable0.2%178BahamasMinimal→stable0.2%179LuxembourgMinimal→stable0.2%180AndorraMinimal→stable0.1%181TongaMinimal→stable0.1%182Marshall IslandsMinimal→stable0.1%183Saint LuciaMinimal→stable0.1%184SurinameMinimal→stable0.1%185San MarinoMinimal→stable0.1%186MonacoMinimal→stable0.1%187NauruMinimal→stable0.1%188LiechtensteinMinimal→stable0.1%189TuvaluMinimal→stable0.1%190DominicaMinimal→stable0.1%191BarbadosMinimal→stable0.1%192Saint VincentMinimal→stable0.1%193Antigua and BarbudaMinimal→stable0.1%194PalauMinimal→stable0.1%195Saint Kitts and NevisMinimal→stable0.1%