Silfio
One platform, multiple ways to investigate risk
Engine
Model property and investment exposure against best-estimate conflict risk and its effects.
Open engineRisk Intelligence
Explore live country signals, conflict probabilities, news and geopolitical assessments.
Explore intelligenceScenario Test
Stress-test a portfolio with set model parameters and quantify the financial impact.
Run a scenarioGlobal risk monitor
Country risk, ranked
Latest modelled annual conflict probability, highest to lowest. Select a country to open its full profile.
RankCountryRisk levelTrendProbability
01
IranCritical→stable57.6%02
EthiopiaCritical→stable50.0%03
MyanmarCritical→stable45.1%04
IndiaCritical→stable42.6%05
ChadCritical→stable36.9%06
RussiaCritical→stable31.4%07
BangladeshCritical→stable30.4%08
DR CongoCritical→stable30.1%09
SyriaCritical→stable25.6%10
PakistanCritical→stable25.4%11
BurundiCritical→stable25.2%12
SudanCritical→stable25.1%13
SomaliaCritical→stable23.8%14
NigeriaCritical→stable23.1%15
PhilippinesCritical→stable22.4%16
IraqCritical→stable21.4%17
MaliCritical→stable21.0%18
NigerCritical→stable20.2%19
AzerbaijanHigh→stable19.1%20
MozambiqueHigh→stable18.7%21
EgyptHigh→stable18.4%22
LibyaHigh→stable16.6%23
JordanHigh→stable15.1%24
UgandaHigh→stable14.1%25
Central African RepublicHigh→stable13.9%26
IndonesiaHigh→stable12.8%27
South SudanHigh→stable12.4%28
YemenHigh→stable11.3%29
RwandaHigh→stable11.2%30
TanzaniaHigh→stable11.2%31
SenegalHigh→stable11.1%32
UkraineHigh→stable10.8%33
AfghanistanHigh→stable10.5%34
LebanonHigh→stable10.4%35
EritreaHigh→stable10.4%36
AlgeriaHigh→stable10.3%37
TurkeyHigh→stable10.1%38
CameroonHigh→stable10.0%39
Sri LankaHighrising9.7%40
VenezuelaHigh→stable9.5%41
Burkina FasoHigh→stable9.1%42
AngolaHigh→stable8.7%43
TajikistanHigh→stable8.6%44
KuwaitHigh→stable8.3%45
MexicoHigh→stable8.0%46
GeorgiaHigh→stable8.0%47
ChinaHigh→stable7.9%48
TunisiaHigh→stable7.5%49
HaitiHigh→stable7.4%50
CongoHigh→stable6.7%51
LiberiaHigh→stable6.7%52
CambodiaHigh→stable6.6%53
KenyaHigh→stable6.3%54
MadagascarHigh→stable6.1%55
NepalHigh→stable5.9%56
IsraelHigh→stable5.3%57
South AfricaHigh→stable5.1%58
MoroccoModerate→stable4.9%59
Ivory CoastModerate→stable4.8%60
Papua New GuineaModerate→stable4.4%61
ThailandModerate→stable4.3%62
GuineaModerate→stable4.3%63
BeninModerate→stable4.2%64
UzbekistanModerate→stable4.0%65
DjiboutiModerate→stable3.9%66
MauritaniaModerate→stable3.7%67
TogoModerate→stable3.6%68
MalawiModerate→stable3.4%69
BahrainModerate→stable3.3%70
KyrgyzstanModerate→stable3.2%71
RomaniaModerate→stable3.1%72
ZambiaModerate→stable3.0%73
VietnamModerate→stable3.0%74
Sierra LeoneModerate→stable3.0%75
BrazilLow→stable2.9%76
North KoreaLow→stable2.9%77
EcuadorLow→stable2.9%78
GhanaLow→stable2.9%79
LaosLow→stable2.8%80
Bosnia and HerzegovinaLow→stable2.6%81
LesothoLow→stable2.5%82
Guinea-BissauLow→stable2.5%83
ZimbabweLow→stable2.5%84
Saudi ArabiaLow→stable2.5%85
ComorosLow→stable2.4%86
MoldovaLow→stable2.3%87
PeruLow→stable2.2%88
MalaysiaLow→stable2.2%89
BelarusLow→stable2.1%90
GuatemalaLow→stable2.0%91
HondurasLow→stable1.9%92
ColombiaLow→stable1.8%93
NicaraguaLow→stable1.8%94
United Arab EmiratesLow→stable1.6%95
El SalvadorLow→stable1.4%96
United StatesLow→stable1.4%97North MacedoniaLow→stable1.4%98
FranceLow→stable1.4%99
ArmeniaLow→stable1.4%100
EswatiniLow→stable1.4%101
GambiaLow→stable1.3%102KosovoLow→stable1.2%103
SpainLow→stable1.2%104
East TimorLow→stable1.2%105
United KingdomLow→stable1.2%106
BoliviaLow→stable1.1%107
AlbaniaLow→stable1.1%108
TurkmenistanLow→stable1.1%109
SerbiaLow→stable1.1%110
KazakhstanLow→stable1.1%111
BulgariaLow→stable1.0%112
CroatiaLow→stable1.0%113
ItalyMinimal→stable0.9%114
OmanMinimal→stable0.9%115
JamaicaMinimal→stable0.9%116
PolandMinimal→stable0.9%117
GreeceMinimal→stable0.9%118
CubaMinimal→stable0.9%119
GermanyMinimal→stable0.8%120
ArgentinaMinimal→stable0.8%121
PortugalMinimal→stable0.8%122
MongoliaMinimal→stable0.8%123
HungaryMinimal→stable0.7%124
Equatorial GuineaMinimal→stable0.7%125
TaiwanMinimal→stable0.7%126
Sao Tome and PrincipeMinimal→stable0.7%127
Dominican RepublicMinimal→stable0.6%128
GabonMinimal→stable0.6%129
ParaguayMinimal→stable0.6%130
South KoreaMinimal→stable0.6%131
BotswanaMinimal→stable0.6%132
NamibiaMinimal→stable0.5%133
MauritiusMinimal→stable0.5%134
SlovakiaMinimal→stable0.5%135
QatarMinimal→stable0.5%136
JapanMinimal→stable0.5%137
MontenegroMinimal→stable0.5%138GrenadaMinimal→stable0.5%139
AustriaMinimal→stable0.5%140
Trinidad and TobagoMinimal→stable0.5%141
MaldivesMinimal→stable0.4%142
BelgiumMinimal→stable0.4%143
Czech RepublicMinimal→stable0.4%144
ChileMinimal→stable0.4%145
PanamaMinimal→stable0.4%146
FijiMinimal→stable0.4%147
BhutanMinimal→stable0.4%148
NetherlandsMinimal→stable0.4%149
SwedenMinimal→stable0.3%150
LatviaMinimal→stable0.3%151
Cape VerdeMinimal→stable0.3%152
LithuaniaMinimal→stable0.3%153
CyprusMinimal→stable0.3%154
SingaporeMinimal→stable0.3%155
BelizeMinimalrising0.3%156
MaltaMinimal→stable0.3%157
FinlandMinimal→stable0.3%158
SloveniaMinimal→stable0.3%159
SwitzerlandMinimal→stable0.3%160
Costa RicaMinimal→stable0.3%161
DenmarkMinimal→stable0.3%162
NorwayMinimal→stable0.3%163
GuyanaMinimal→stable0.3%164
Solomon IslandsMinimal→stable0.3%165
EstoniaMinimal→stable0.3%166
IrelandMinimal→stable0.2%167
AustraliaMinimal→stable0.2%168
CanadaMinimal→stable0.2%169
VanuatuMinimal→stable0.2%170
UruguayMinimal→stable0.2%171
KiribatiMinimal→stable0.2%172
MicronesiaMinimal→stable0.2%173
BruneiMinimal→stable0.2%174
SamoaMinimal→stable0.2%175
IcelandMinimal→stable0.2%176
BahamasMinimal→stable0.2%177
AndorraMinimal→stable0.2%178
LuxembourgMinimal→stable0.2%179
New ZealandMinimal→stable0.1%180
SeychellesMinimal→stable0.1%181
TongaMinimal→stable0.1%182
Marshall IslandsMinimal→stable0.1%183
Saint LuciaMinimal→stable0.1%184
SurinameMinimal→stable0.1%185
MonacoMinimal→stable0.1%186
San MarinoMinimal→stable0.1%187
NauruMinimal→stable0.1%188
LiechtensteinMinimal→stable0.1%189
DominicaMinimal→stable0.1%190
TuvaluMinimal→stable0.1%191
BarbadosMinimal→stable0.1%192
Saint VincentMinimal→stable0.1%193
Antigua and BarbudaMinimal→stable0.1%194
Saint Kitts and NevisMinimal→stable0.1%195
PalauMinimal→stable0.1%