Mali

Mali faces a 20.8% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, making it a critical risk. The country has a long record of insurgency, communal violence, military coups, and weak state control, while economic constraints and limited institutional capacity hinder the restoration of security across the north and centre. Existing fighting is not itself counted as a new onset, but these conditions leave clear scope for a distinct escalation or new armed confrontation on Malian territory.

Recent reporting highlights the continuing importance of Russia’s Africa Corps and Mali’s armed forces in the security environment. A documentary about Russian military personnel operating in Mali was screened in Lomé on 4 September 2026, underscoring the foreign-backed military relationship, while armed groups including JNIM and Islamic State–Sahel remain central conflict actors.

The largest uncertainty is whether ongoing counterinsurgency operations and external military support contain armed-group expansion or instead generate fresh confrontations with insurgents, communal militias, or other domestic actors. A major attack, territorial seizure, coup-related rupture, or breakdown between Malian authorities and their military partners would raise risk; sustained state consolidation and reduced militant activity would lower it.