Mali

Mali has a 14.0% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, a high risk. Repeated coups, weak state institutions, limited economic capacity, and a long history of rebellion and jihadist violence leave the country vulnerable to a new internal armed confrontation or a significant spillover onto its territory.

Recent reporting shows that GSIM, al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, documented a deadly 10 September attack on a Malian army camp in the Mopti region. The reported search by the Azawad Liberation Front for financial and military support from Benghazi and the United Arab Emirates also highlights the involvement of armed and external actors, while Mali’s security cooperation with Burkina Faso and Niger remains central.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing insurgent, separatist, and communal violence develops into a distinct new conflict episode involving additional territory or actors, rather than remaining part of the fighting already underway. Renewed large-scale attacks, a breakdown in relations among Malian authorities and armed groups, or cross-border backing for rebels would raise risk; effective security coordination and sustained regional diplomacy would lower it.