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Silfio country intelligence

Liberia

High risk6.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Liberia flag

Liberia facts

Population

5.73M

GDP

$5.25B

Currency

LRD

Capital

Monrovia

Land area

111.37K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Liberia

NEWS

Conflict probability

6%

Model base probability

5.3%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Liberia, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news portrays Liberia as stable and focused on peacebuilding and economic development under President Boakai, with no signs of internal unrest or imminent conflict.
  • Regional context shows heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., US-Iran conflict), but no direct spillover or threats to Liberia’s territory are indicated.
  • Some reports highlight ongoing challenges like poverty and greed as impediments to growth, which could elevate latent risk modestly but do not signal immediate armed conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Liberia’s transformation into a peacebuilder and projection of multilateral agency under President Boakai (News [1])
  • Nigeria-Liberia trade ties strengthening under AfCFTA agenda (News [11])
  • Regional geopolitical tensions (US-Iran conflict escalation) with no direct impact on Liberia (News [3], [4])

Related coverage

Latest articles about Liberia

Updated July 20, 2026

liberianobserver.com · 3 days ago

Liberia has transformed from a pariah to a peacebuilder: It’s projecting agency and standing up for multilateralism | Commentaries | liberianobserver.com

Liberia’s post-conflict journey has entered a new phase. Following two decades of post-war reconstruction and state-building, the Government of President Joseph Nyuma Boakai has rebranded and repositioned Liberia in the

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allafrica.com · 2 days ago

Africa: Can Africa Reinvent Mediation Before Its Wars Outrun Diplomacy? - allAfrica.com

If the first challenge confronting African diplomacy is that peace negotiations are becoming increasingly transactional, and the second is that modern wars have outgrown traditional mediation, then the third and perhaps most difficult question is this: what should replace the old model?

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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