Liberia

Liberia’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 6.0%, representing a high risk. The country’s two civil wars, fought from 1989 to 2003, left persistent institutional, economic, and security-sector vulnerabilities. Limited state capacity and a history of political violence continue to support the risk of renewed internal conflict.

Recent reporting supplied for 19 October 2026 contains no specific armed confrontation or external threat on Liberian territory. The principal relevant actors are Liberia’s government and security forces, political factions, and potential local armed networks; no neighbouring state or organised armed group is identified as currently preparing an attack on Liberia.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or economic grievances could overcome the post-war settlement and existing security institutions. A serious disputed election, violent mass unrest, elite defection within the security forces, or organised attacks by domestic groups would raise risk; sustained peaceful political competition, effective policing, and continued regional diplomatic engagement would lower it.