Liberia

Liberia’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 6.8%, a high risk. The country’s two civil wars, fought from 1989 to 2003, left weak security institutions, limited economic capacity, widespread poverty, and unresolved local grievances. These conditions continue to make political crises, resource disputes, and communal violence harder to contain, even though Liberia has maintained post-war peace for more than two decades.

Recent reporting identifies illegal mining as the clearest potential flashpoint. The government is preparing nationwide enforcement involving drones, satellite reconnaissance, military and police units, and seizures of equipment and minerals. The principal actors are state security forces, illegal mining operators, and affected local communities. Reporting on women’s health, gender-based violence, and shrinking aid also points to persistent social pressures, but does not describe organized armed confrontation. No prediction market is available for Liberia.

The largest uncertainty is whether coercive enforcement or broader economic and political grievances could produce sustained armed resistance rather than isolated disorder. Risk would rise if mining operations led to deaths, organized attacks on security forces, communal mobilization, or elite-backed violence. It would lower if enforcement remained accountable and localized, while government institutions, UN-backed services, and domestic financing efforts continued to manage grievances peacefully.