Silfio country intelligence · TGO
Togo
3.7% annual probability
Population
8.59M
GDP
$11.89B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Lomé
Land area
56.79K km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Togo is 3.7%, representing a moderate risk. The main long-run factors are limited institutional resilience, political tensions surrounding executive power and constitutional change, and Togo’s exposure to instability spreading south from the Sahel. The country has historically avoided sustained civil war, which remains an important counterweight.
Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific new escalation inside Togo, and no prediction market is available. The principal external concern is jihadist activity linked to the wider Sahel conflict, particularly near Togo’s northern border with Burkina Faso, while the government and security forces remain the main domestic actors capable of containing unrest.
The largest uncertainty is whether insecurity in Burkina Faso expands into northern Togo or combines with domestic political mobilisation. A sustained jihadist foothold, repeated attacks causing significant casualties, or violent confrontation between protesters and security forces would raise risk; effective border security and continued containment of political disputes would lower it.
Strategic reasoning
- Togo’s history of political tension and periodic protest supports a non-trivial internal-conflict risk, but the absence of a sustained civil war or organised nationwide rebellion remains stabilising.
- Sahelian jihadist violence creates the clearest escalation pathway through northern border areas. This is distinct from fighting already occurring in neighbouring states and counts only if armed violence becomes sustained on Togolese territory.
Critical indicators
- In 2021–2022, jihadist attacks reached northern Togo, including deadly violence near the Burkina Faso border. These incidents established a cross-border spillover pathway, although they do not by themselves constitute a new 12-month onset.
- On 25 March 2024, Togo’s parliament approved a new constitution that shifted the system toward a parliamentary model and intensified political controversy. The episode demonstrated that disputes over governance can generate mobilisation, while remaining short of sustained armed conflict.
Probability trend
How the Togo estimate has moved
Probability3.7%3.7%3.6%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Togo compared with its neighbours and region
Togo ranks number 67 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage