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Silfio country intelligence

Togo

High risk5.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Togo flag

Togo facts

Population

8.59M

GDP

$11.89B

Currency

XOF

Capital

Lomé

Land area

56.79K km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Togo

NEWS

Conflict probability

5%

Model base probability

4.2%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Togo, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage focuses on heightened geopolitical tensions in other regions (Middle East, Southeast Asia) with no direct or indirect indications of instability or armed conflict risk in Togo.
  • No reports of domestic unrest, insurgency, coup attempts, or foreign threats against Togo were found.
  • However, given the general global increase in geopolitical tensions and military conflicts elsewhere, a modest upward adjustment is warranted to reflect potential spillover risks or contagion effects in West Africa.

Critical indicators

  • Ongoing US-Iran military conflict and regional instability in the Middle East.
  • No direct conflict or instability signals related to Togo.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Togo

Updated July 20, 2026

thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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responsiblestatecraft.org · 3 days ago

Gunboat or showboat: Can the Navy truly sustain a long war with Iran? | Responsible Statecraft

Trump has reimposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, but to do so, the US will have to concentrate all its deployable ships in one place

Read source