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Silfio country intelligence · TGO
Togo
6.7% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
8.59M
GDP
$11.89B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Lomé
Land area
56.79K km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Togo is 6.7%, representing a high risk. The principal long-run factors are limited state capacity in the north, economic and institutional pressures, and Togo’s exposure to insecurity across the Sahel. Conflict has not become nationwide, but the country’s recent history includes lethal militant incursions and a security environment vulnerable to spillover.
Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific new incident or mobilisation inside Togo. The main relevant actors are Togo’s security forces and jihadist groups operating in the wider Sahel and northern Benin, whose activity could create a cross-border threat to the Savanes Region.
The largest uncertainty is whether militant networks can establish a durable presence or sustain attacks on Togolese territory rather than conducting isolated incursions. A successful attack, expanded militant operations in northern Benin, or evidence of local recruitment would raise risk; stronger border control and sustained containment of armed groups would lower it.
Strategic reasoning
- Togo’s northern exposure to Sahelian and Beninese insecurity matters because limited state reach and difficult border conditions can facilitate armed-group infiltration, even though no nationwide conflict is underway.
- The strongest escalatory pathway is renewed jihadist activity near the northern border; the main stabilising factor is the continued ability of Togolese security forces to prevent isolated violence from developing into sustained domestic conflict.
Critical indicators
- In 2022, militant attacks and incursions reached Togo’s Savanes Region, demonstrating that violence from the Sahel can reach Togolese territory and providing an established basis for the current risk.
- On 15 July 2022, Togo declared a state of emergency in the Savanes Region after attacks attributed to jihadist militants, highlighting the sensitivity of the northern border and the potential for renewed armed activity.
Probability trend
How the Togo estimate has moved
Probability6.8%6.8%6.7%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Togo.
Regional context
Togo compared with its neighbours and region
Togo ranks number 49 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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