Niger

Niger faces a 17.9% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, placing it in the high risk category. The main long-run drivers are its history of coups and political instability, limited state capacity, weak economic resilience, and persistent insecurity across the Sahel. These conditions can make political crises or local violence more likely to spread into sustained fighting on Nigerien territory.

Recent reporting shows Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali have resumed dialogue with ECOWAS after formally leaving the bloc in January 2025. The talks, involving the Alliance of Sahel States and ECOWAS representatives, indicate continuing regional tension but also provide a channel for managing disputes. Niger’s military authorities and neighbouring governments remain the principal political actors, while jihadist groups continue to shape the security environment.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional diplomacy can contain political disagreements while Niger’s internal security pressures persist. A renewed confrontation with ECOWAS, further military or political rupture, or a major escalation by armed groups would raise risk; sustained dialogue, improved regional coordination, and effective containment of violence would lower it.