Niger

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Niger is 24.8%, representing a critical risk. Niger has a recent history of military coups, fragile civilian institutions, and persistent jihadist violence in its western and southeastern regions. Limited state capacity, economic pressure, and contested military authority leave the country vulnerable to renewed internal armed confrontation.

The strongest current evidence is the attempted military mutiny at Air Base 101 in Niamey in late August, involving elements of the Special Reconnaissance Battalion. The junta says clashes occurred and that a substantial weapons cache was seized. President Abdourahamane Tiani resumed public duties on September 4, while Niger has accused France, Benin, Nigeria, and ECOWAS-linked actors of involvement; those governments have denied the allegations. Russian forces remain aligned with the military leadership.

The main uncertainty is whether the failed mutiny was an isolated factional challenge or evidence of deeper fractures within the security forces. Risk would rise if further military units rebelled, fighting spread beyond the capital, or external accusations produced retaliation. It would fall if the junta consolidated command, contained the dispute without further violence, and maintained control over military installations.