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Silfio country intelligence

Niger

High risk12.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Niger flag

Niger facts

Population

27.92M

GDP

$21.65B

Currency

XOF

Capital

Niamey

Land area

1.27M km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Niger

NEWS

Conflict probability

12%

Model base probability

8.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Niger, so adjustment relies solely on recent news signals.
  • Recent terrorist attack on July 17 in the Tillaberi region killed 16 soldiers and wounded many, indicating active violent insurgency and instability on Niger’s soil.
  • Niger is under junta rule, which often correlates with political instability and risk of new armed conflict onset such as coups or insurgencies.
  • Regional instability is high, with ongoing conflicts in neighboring countries and broader geopolitical tensions (e.g., US-Iran conflict), which can spill over or exacerbate local conflicts.

Critical indicators

  • July 17, 2026: Terrorist attack in Tillaberi region kills 16 Nigerien soldiers and wounds 23.
  • Niger under junta rule, increasing political instability risk.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Niger

Updated July 20, 2026

cnn.com · 3 days ago

Trump is edging towards another American ‘forever war’ in Iran | CNN

It is the ultimate sanction. But somehow for President Donald Trump – who once sought a Nobel Peace Prize for ending wars – military force has become a casual measure, a kind of background effect used to cajole Iran into diplomacy.

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economictimes.indiatimes.com · 9 hours ago

Attack kills 16 soldiers in junta-ruled Niger: State media - The Economic Times

"A terrorist attack targeting a military deployment in the Tera area (in Tillaberi region) on Friday July 17 caused 16 martyrs, 23 wounded of which nine are serious," ANP said.

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bostonglobe.com · 3 hours ago

Nigerian children pay the price for the Iran war as malnutrition and poverty surge - The Boston Globe

Health workers in northern Nigeria say more children are relapsing into malnutrition and cite knock-on effects from the war in the Middle East.

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