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Silfio country intelligence

Ghana

Moderate risk3.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Ghana flag

Ghana facts

Population

35.06M

GDP

$114.21B

Currency

GHS

Capital

Accra

Land area

238.53K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Ghana

NEWS

Conflict probability

3.5%

Model base probability

3.0%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Ghana, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Ghana itself shows no direct signs of imminent armed conflict or interstate aggression; political tensions appear limited to arrests and legal disputes without armed violence.
  • Regional and global geopolitical tensions are elevated, notably the escalating US-Iran conflict and broader instability in Africa’s diplomatic mediation capacity, which could indirectly increase risk of spillover or instability in African states including Ghana.
  • Domestic political environment shows some pressure on civil space and freedom of expression, which can be early indicators of rising internal tensions, though no armed conflict or coup signals are present.

Critical indicators

  • Arrests and detentions for criticizing Ghana’s government indicating political pressure (News [15])
  • Regional diplomatic challenges in Africa’s mediation capacity amid ongoing wars (News [2])
  • Escalating US-Iran conflict raising global geopolitical risk premiums (News [5], [6])

Related coverage

Latest articles about Ghana

Updated July 20, 2026

thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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allafrica.com · 2 days ago

Africa: Can Africa Reinvent Mediation Before Its Wars Outrun Diplomacy? - allAfrica.com

If the first challenge confronting African diplomacy is that peace negotiations are becoming increasingly transactional, and the second is that modern wars have outgrown traditional mediation, then the third and perhaps most difficult question is this: what should replace the old model?

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dailymail.com · 2 days ago

Iran issues grim new order to citizens after US strikes 'hit power plants' as conflict spirals | Daily Mail Online

Temperatures in the capital were expected to hit triple digits Friday with highs of 102F on Saturday and Sunday.

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