Burkina Faso

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Burkina Faso is 9.2%, a high risk. The country has experienced repeated coups, weak state capacity, and persistent jihadist insurgency, while large rural areas remain difficult for the government to control. These conditions leave institutions and security forces vulnerable to renewed internal confrontation or further territorial escalation.

Recent reporting shows the National Armed Forces are expanding and testing Chinese-supplied capabilities, including a mobile surface-to-air missile system identified by observers as the Sky Dragon 30. The military-led government is also distancing itself from Western suppliers and remains closely linked to the conflict environment shared with Mali and Niger, while regional cohesion has weakened after the three states left ECOWAS.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing militant violence produces a distinct new phase of organised fighting on Burkinabe territory, rather than remaining part of the conflict already underway. Risk would rise if jihadist groups captured additional population centres, the armed forces fractured, or cross-border insecurity from Mali or Niger generated sustained fighting inside Burkina Faso; improved territorial control and reduced attacks would lower it.