Burkina Faso

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Burkina Faso is 7.3%, representing a high risk. The country has a recent history of coups, contested military rule, weak state institutions, and persistent jihadist violence, while limited economic capacity constrains security provision and political management. These conditions make further domestic escalation plausible even though fighting is already underway.

Recent reporting describes unusually intense clashes between Islamic State and al-Qaeda-affiliated factions across the Mali–Burkina Faso–Niger border area, including northern Burkina Faso. ISIS-linked attack imagery and reports of an Islamic State battlefield advantage indicate continuing pressure from armed groups. At the same time, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger resumed talks with ECOWAS on 18 October, after withdrawing from the bloc in January 2025.

The main uncertainty is whether rival jihadist fighting and pressure on state forces produce a distinct new conflict configuration inside Burkina Faso rather than extending existing insurgency. Risk would rise with sustained factional battles, a major attack on an urban centre, or renewed military-political breakdown; continued ECOWAS dialogue and effective containment of armed-group competition would support lower risk.