Benin

Benin has a 4.2% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within the next 12 months, making this a moderate risk. The country’s long record of political stability and absence of sustained civil war remain important restraints, but its northern border is exposed to insecurity spreading from the Sahel, while limited state capacity in remote areas can complicate prevention and response.

The strongest recent signal is a diplomatic dispute with Niger. On 4 September, Beninese government spokesperson Wilfried Houngbedji rejected allegations by a Nigerien army representative that Benin was involved in the mutiny at Air Base 101 in Niamey. The accusation raises regional mistrust, although the reported development itself occurred in Niger and does not constitute fighting on Beninese territory.

The main uncertainty is whether tensions involving Niger could produce retaliation, border incidents, or enable armed groups to operate more freely across the frontier. Risk would rise most clearly if accusations were followed by troop movements, cross-border attacks, or evidence of militant expansion into Benin; sustained de-escalation and continued control of the northern border would lower the pressure.