Benin

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Benin is 3.6%, representing a moderate risk. Benin has generally maintained stable institutions and avoided sustained civil war or insurgency, supporting a relatively contained risk. Its exposure to insecurity in the Sahel, limited state reach in some northern areas, and economic and social pressures nevertheless provide pathways for escalation.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific armed incident or mobilisation inside Benin, and no prediction market is available. The principal concern remains possible spillover from jihadist activity in Burkina Faso, Niger, and northern Nigeria, including attacks or infiltration affecting Benin’s northern departments. Beninese security forces and regional partners remain the main actors capable of containing that threat.

The largest uncertainty is whether armed groups can establish a durable presence on Beninese territory rather than conduct isolated incursions. Risk would rise with repeated attacks, territorial control, or evidence of organised recruitment in the north; stronger border security, effective cooperation with neighbours, and the absence of sustained militant activity would support lower risk.