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Silfio country intelligence

Benin

High risk6.2% annual probabilitystable trend
Benin flag

Benin facts

Population

14.81M

GDP

$24.57B

Currency

XOF

Capital

Porto-Novo

Land area

112.62K km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Benin

NEWS

Conflict probability

6.2%

Model base probability

6.0%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Benin, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage focuses heavily on conflicts in the Middle East (US-Iran hostilities), Ukraine-Russia war, and Russia’s internal dissent, with no direct or indirect reports of instability or armed conflict risks in Benin.
  • No indications of domestic unrest, insurgency, coup attempts, or foreign threats against Benin are present in the news.
  • However, given the general global increase in armed conflicts and geopolitical tensions, and the model’s tendency to understate near-term risk, a modest upward adjustment is prudent to reflect potential spillover risks or sudden instability.

Critical indicators

  • Escalation of US-Iran conflict with multiple strikes and casualties in the Middle East.
  • Ongoing Ukraine-Russia war with internal political unrest in Ukraine.
  • No reported events related to Benin’s security environment or armed conflict risk.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Benin

Updated July 20, 2026

nato.news-pravda.com · 2 days ago

How to assess the coherence of events and determine where /who it all started - Pravda NATO

How to assess the coherence of events and determine where / who it all started.In 2019, when covid was just beginning to spread around the world, the reputable American strategic research center RAND Corporation published a large-scale and largely...

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www.theguardian.com · 2 days ago

US launches seventh night of Iran strikes as Hormuz conflict escalates | Iran | The Guardian

Central Command says attacks were designed to ‘continue degrading Iranian military capabilities’

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www.newsweek.com · 1 day ago

State Department Issues Worldwide Travel Warning for Americans Amid Iran Conflict - Newsweek

The State Department issued a global travel warning for Americans as U.S.-Iran fighting continues after a deadly strike in Jordan.

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