Guinea

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Guinea is 3.8%, representing a moderate risk. The main supporting factors are a history of military intervention, contested political transitions, weak institutions, and episodes of severe state violence. Guinea has avoided a sustained civil war, but instability in neighbouring Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Côte d’Ivoire has previously generated refugee flows and cross-border security pressures.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific dated development indicating an imminent armed confrontation on Guinean territory. The principal relevant actors remain the military authorities, opposition parties, security forces, and politically mobilised ethnic and civic constituencies; neighbouring states and regional organisations also matter through border security and diplomatic pressure. No prediction market is available for Guinea.

The largest uncertainty is whether political disputes remain manageable or develop into organised armed resistance, particularly if repression, economic strain, or factional divisions weaken civilian and military controls. Risk would rise most clearly after sustained armed clashes involving domestic security forces and organised opponents. A credible, broadly accepted transition with disciplined security forces and effective regional mediation would lower the likelihood of a new onset.