All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Guinea

High risk5.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Guinea flag

Guinea facts

Population

15.1M

GDP

$28.35B

Currency

GNF

Capital

Conakry

Land area

245.86K km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Guinea

NEWS

Conflict probability

5.5%

Model base probability

4.9%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for Guinea, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage shows no direct indication of armed conflict or instability within Guinea itself; the inauguration of the new National Assembly suggests political normalcy and institutional continuity.
  • Regional and global tensions (notably US-Iran conflict escalation) do not directly implicate Guinea or its immediate neighborhood, so no interstate conflict risk increase is evident.
  • Given the structural model’s tendency to understate near-term risk and the general global instability environment, a modest upward adjustment is prudent to reflect latent risks and potential spillovers, even if currently low.

Critical indicators

  • Guinea inaugurates new National Assembly under the Fifth Republic (July 17, 2026)
  • Escalation of US-Iran conflict with military strikes and casualties (July 2026)

Related coverage

Latest articles about Guinea

Updated July 20, 2026

www.theguardian.com · 1 day ago

World Cup 2026 latest: Trump criticises Tuchel, buildup to France v England and Spain v Argentina final – as it happened | World Cup 2026 | The Guardian

Donald Trump criticised Thomas Tuchel for England’s semi-final loss

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

Read source

www.hindustantimes.com · 1 day ago

US-Iran war LIVE: Iran 'hits' two US military assets in Kuwait, uncertainty looms over peace deal as attacks escalate

US-Iran war LIVE: Two US soldiers were killed and four injured in Iranian fire in Jordan. Following the killings, the US military said that it carried out new airstrikes against Iran on Sunday to “swiftly punish” the country’s Revolutionary Guard for the casualties. | World News

Read source