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Silfio country intelligence

Guinea-Bissau

High risk5.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Guinea-Bissau flag

Guinea-Bissau facts

Population

2.25M

GDP

$2.53B

Currency

XOF

Capital

Bissau

Land area

36.13K km²

Official languages

Portuguese, Upper Guinea Creole

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Guinea-Bissau

NEWS

Conflict probability

5%

Model base probability

3.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Guinea-Bissau, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news indicates significant political instability: Guinea-Bissau has frozen ties with neighboring Cape Verde amid accusations of interference, signaling regional diplomatic tensions.
  • Opposition parties are actively demanding a civilian-led transition and rejecting military reforms, highlighting ongoing political contestation and potential for internal conflict or a coup attempt.
  • The transitional authorities are described as "furious," suggesting heightened tensions within the ruling apparatus and between domestic actors.

Critical indicators

  • Guinea-Bissau suspends political relations with Cape Verde over alleged interference (July 2026).
  • Opposition coalitions demand civilian-led transition government and reject military reforms amid military junta rule (July 2026).

Related coverage

Latest articles about Guinea-Bissau

Updated July 20, 2026

zambianobserver.com · 2 days ago

GUINEA-BISSAU FREEZES TIES WITH CAPE VERDE AND THE BROTHERHOOD IS CRACKING - The Zambian Observer

GUINEA-BISSAU FREEZES TIES WITH CAPE VERDE AND THE BROTHERHOOD IS CRACKINGGuinea-Bissau has suspended political relations with Cape Verde, accusing its neighbour of interference in internal affairs. The transitional authorities are furious after Cape Verde called for the release of opposition ...

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gnnliberia.com · 2 days ago

Guinea-Bissau Opposition Parties Demand Civilian-Led Transition Government, Reject Military Reforms - Global News Network Liberia

By Paul Ejime Ahead of the ECOWAS Summit in Freetown on Sunday 19 July, Guinea- Bissau’s two main opposition political coalitions – PAI-TR and API-CG – have called for a civilian-led transition government to replace the military junta currently in power in the country following former ...

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guampdn.com · 3 days ago

OPINION Lotz: Buildup embodies the future of our island | News | guampdn.com

We just missed commemorating a milestone of the military buildup of Guam which occurred on July 1, 2019 when Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero met with numerous residents of Guam who,

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