guinea-bissau.news-pravda.com
Silfio country intelligence · GNB
Guinea-Bissau
2.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
2.25M
GDP
$2.53B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Bissau
Land area
36.13K km²
Official languages
Portuguese, Upper Guinea Creole
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Guinea-Bissau has a 2.3% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within 12 months, representing a low risk. The country’s history of military coups, political instability, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and the 1998–99 civil war supports continued vulnerability, even though sustained nationwide conflict has not persisted in recent years.
Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific armed confrontation or mobilisation on Guinea-Bissau’s territory. The principal domestic actors remain the armed forces, political authorities, and competing parties; the country’s position in a politically fragile West African region is an additional contextual concern. No prediction market is available.
The largest uncertainty is whether political disputes could again fracture relations between civilian authorities and the military. A coup attempt, armed clashes involving security forces, or organised violence around a contested transfer of power would raise risk; continued military restraint and negotiated management of political disputes would lower it.
Strategic reasoning
- Repeated coups and the 1998–99 civil war show that disputes among political and military elites can become violent when institutions cannot contain them.
- The absence of a supplied current confrontation supports the low classification, while the key escalatory pathway remains a breakdown between state authorities, security forces, and rival political factions.
Critical indicators
- The 1998–99 Guinea-Bissau civil war pitted government forces and foreign-backed supporters against a military rebellion, demonstrating the country’s capacity for rapid escalation from elite conflict into territorial fighting.
- Military coups in 2012 and earlier periods established a recurring pattern of armed intervention in politics; this history remains relevant to the possibility of a new domestic onset if another constitutional crisis develops.
Probability trend
How the Guinea-Bissau estimate has moved
Probability2.4%2.3%2.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Guinea-Bissau.
Regional context
Guinea-Bissau compared with its neighbours and region
Guinea-Bissau ranks number 84 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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