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Silfio country intelligence · GNB
Guinea-Bissau
2.6% annual probability
Population
2.25M
GDP
$2.53B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Bissau
Land area
36.13K km²
Official languages
Portuguese, Upper Guinea Creole
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Guinea-Bissau is 2.6%, representing a low risk. The country’s history of coups, military interference in politics, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and past political violence support a persistent underlying vulnerability, although these factors have not translated into sustained nationwide fighting in recent years.
Recent reporting provides no specific, datable indication of an imminent armed confrontation on Guinea-Bissau’s territory. The principal relevant actors remain the armed forces, political factions, and state institutions; regional organisations, particularly ECOWAS, also matter because external diplomatic pressure has previously helped contain political crises.
The largest uncertainty is whether a disputed transfer of power or severe political confrontation could again bring armed units into the streets. A successful constitutional transition, continued civilian control of the security forces, and effective regional mediation would support lower risk; a coup attempt, elite fragmentation, or armed clashes around government institutions would raise it.
Strategic reasoning
- Repeated coups and attempted coups, including the 2012 takeover and the 2022 attack on government buildings, show that political disputes can acquire a military dimension. This supports an elevated baseline risk even though those episodes did not produce a continuing civil war.
- The absence of a reported active insurgency or organised armed campaign is an important stabilising factor. Risk concerns a new onset inside Guinea-Bissau, not the country’s participation in security activity or instability elsewhere.
Critical indicators
- On 1 February 2022, attackers clashed with security forces near government buildings in Bissau during an apparent coup attempt. The episode demonstrated the potential for sudden armed escalation around the capital.
- In April 2012, military forces seized power after a coup, reinforcing the long-running pattern of political crises involving the security establishment. That history remains relevant to the current low risk of a new domestic onset.
Probability trend
How the Guinea-Bissau estimate has moved
Probability2.6%2.5%2.5%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Guinea-Bissau compared with its neighbours and region
Guinea-Bissau ranks number 81 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
constitutionnet.org