Senegal

Senegal’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 11.2%, a high risk. The country benefits from comparatively strong institutions and a long record of competitive elections and peaceful transfers of power, but political tensions, economic hardship, and a history of armed separatist conflict in Casamance remain important vulnerabilities. Instability in neighbouring Sahel states also creates risks of militant spillover, even though Senegal has generally contained such threats.

Recent reporting shows growing public discontent rather than organised armed mobilisation. On 5 September, demonstrators in Dakar joined the “March of Empty Baskets,” called by Senegalese influencers to protest the cost of living and inflation. Separate reporting describes an increasingly tense dispute between the Kiiraay Republicans and Pastef over governance and debt, with possible parliamentary confrontation involving President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s governing camp.

The largest uncertainty is whether political and economic frustration remains within Senegal’s established protest and electoral channels or develops into sustained violence. Risk would rise if demonstrations produced repeated clashes, repression, defections by security forces, or armed-group activity crossed from neighbouring countries or Casamance into new areas. Credible parliamentary compromise, restraint by authorities, and peaceful management of the cost-of-living protests would lower escalation pressure.