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Silfio country intelligence

Senegal

High risk6.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Senegal flag

Senegal facts

Population

18.93M

GDP

$37.01B

Currency

XOF

Capital

Dakar

Land area

196.72K km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Senegal

NEWS

Conflict probability

6%

Model base probability

4.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Senegal, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Senegal’s president has just become ECOWAS chairman, a role that often involves managing regional security challenges, indicating heightened regional security responsibilities and potential exposure to regional instability spillovers.
  • The broader West African region remains volatile, with ongoing political rivalries (e.g., between former president Macky Sall and opposition figures) and the risk of political tensions escalating into violence, especially with upcoming elections in 2029.
  • Increased geopolitical tensions globally (e.g., US-Iran conflict) raise general regional instability risk, which can indirectly affect Senegal through refugee flows, economic shocks, or proxy conflicts.

Critical indicators

  • Senegal’s president Bassirou Diomaye Faye elected ECOWAS chairman (July 19, 2026)
  • Return of former president Macky Sall to Senegal amid political rivalry and upcoming 2029 elections
  • Escalation of US-Iran conflict raising global geopolitical risk premiums
  • Reports of Russian propaganda campaigns targeting West African media

Related coverage

Latest articles about Senegal

Updated July 20, 2026

blueprint.ng · 2 hours ago

Senegal’s president emerges new ECOWAS chairman - Blueprint Newspapers Limited

July 19, 2026 Austine Agbo Emmanuel World Stage 0 · Senegal’s President, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, has been elected the new Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), succeeding Sierra Leonean President Julius Maada Bio

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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www.hindustantimes.com · 1 day ago

US-Iran war LIVE: Iran 'hits' two US military assets in Kuwait, uncertainty looms over peace deal as attacks escalate

US-Iran war LIVE: Two US soldiers were killed and four injured in Iranian fire in Jordan. Following the killings, the US military said that it carried out new airstrikes against Iran on Sunday to “swiftly punish” the country’s Revolutionary Guard for the casualties. | World News

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