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Silfio country intelligence

Gambia

Moderate risk4.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Gambia flag

Gambia facts

Population

2.82M

GDP

$2.59B

Currency

GMD

Capital

Banjul

Land area

10.69K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Gambia

NEWS

Conflict probability

4.5%

Model base probability

2.9%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Gambia, so adjustment relies solely on recent news signals.
  • Multiple recent reports indicate a serious border incident between Senegalese forces and Gambian military at Bulock, involving demolition of Gambian military infrastructure and strong official condemnation by Gambia, indicating heightened interstate tensions.
  • While this incident does not confirm an ongoing armed conflict, it represents a significant provocation and escalation risk that could trigger a new armed conflict onset on Gambian territory within the next 12 months.
  • The structural model’s baseline probability (2.93%) likely underestimates near-term risk given this recent escalation, warranting a moderate upward adjustment to reflect increased risk of interstate conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • July 16, 2026: Senegalese military demolished a wall of a Gambian military post near the border at Bulock, described by Gambia as a "deeply provocative" incursion.
  • July 17-19, 2026: Official Gambian statements expressing "profound concern" and condemnation of the Senegal border incident, with diplomatic tensions rising.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Gambia

Updated July 20, 2026

www.dhnet.be · 2 days ago

La Gambie exprime sa "profonde inquiétude" après un incident frontalier avec le Sénégal - La DH/Les Sports+

La Gambie a exprimé vendredi sa "profonde inquiétude" à la suite de ce qu'elle a qualifié d'incursion "gravement provocatrice" des forces armées...

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allafrica.com · 2 days ago

Africa: Can Africa Reinvent Mediation Before Its Wars Outrun Diplomacy? - allAfrica.com

If the first challenge confronting African diplomacy is that peace negotiations are becoming increasingly transactional, and the second is that modern wars have outgrown traditional mediation, then the third and perhaps most difficult question is this: what should replace the old model?

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www.thepaperboy.com · 2 days ago

Thepaperboy

Archive · Sat 18 Jul · US Edition · Loading 12 US front pages for 18 July 2026

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