Gambia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in The Gambia is 1.3%, a low risk. The country has avoided sustained civil war and large-scale insurgency, while its small economy, limited state capacity, and political institutions leave some vulnerability. The 2016–17 constitutional crisis and the January 2022 coup attempt show that political disputes have occasionally carried a security dimension, but neither produced continuing armed conflict.

Recent reporting highlights a multi-stakeholder community dialogue on disarmament and peacebuilding in Banjul, organised by the World BEYOND War Gambia chapter on 17 October 2026. The initiative involves civil-society and community actors rather than an identified armed faction, and provides a stabilising signal. No prediction market for The Gambia was identified.

The largest uncertainty is whether future political or security disputes could move beyond institutional channels and involve military or organised armed actors. Risk would rise most clearly with a successful or attempted coup accompanied by sustained fighting, armed mobilisation, or cross-border intervention reaching Gambian territory; continued dialogue, civilian control, and peaceful political dispute resolution would support the current low-risk assessment.