Gambia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Gambia is 1.3%, representing a low risk. The country has a history of military intervention, including the 1994 coup and the prolonged political crisis surrounding Yahya Jammeh’s departure in 2017. Limited economic capacity, fragile institutions, and the presence of security actors with a record of political involvement support continued exposure, although Gambia has not experienced sustained nationwide armed conflict in recent decades.

Recent reporting provides no evidence of fighting or organised mobilisation on Gambian territory. A report dated August 31 described a shooting in Tucson, United States, allegedly involving a Gambian migrant; this is an overseas incident and does not meet the criteria for a new conflict onset in Gambia. No prediction markets were identified.

The main uncertainty is whether domestic political disputes or security-sector tensions could overcome the country’s recent preference for negotiated crisis management. Risk would rise most clearly with a coup attempt, armed rebellion, or clashes involving state forces inside Gambia; credible institutional cooperation, peaceful political competition, and continued civilian control of the security services would support the current low-risk assessment.