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Silfio country intelligence

Nigeria

High risk11.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Nigeria flag

Nigeria facts

Population

237.53M

GDP

$290.79B

Currency

NGN

Capital

Abuja

Land area

923.77K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Nigeria

NEWS

Conflict probability

11%

Model base probability

8.8%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for Nigeria, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Nigeria is not currently reported to be experiencing a new armed conflict onset, but regional instability and internal security challenges persist, including factional rivalries and security force rivalries that have previously weakened counterterrorism efforts.
  • The ongoing US-Iran conflict is driving a global oil price surge, benefiting Nigeria economically, which may reduce immediate internal conflict risk but also increases geopolitical tensions that could indirectly destabilize the region.
  • Reports of worsening poverty and malnutrition in Nigeria, exacerbated by external conflicts, increase social stress and potential for internal unrest or insurgency onset.

Critical indicators

  • Nigeria’s economic prospects improve due to Brent crude surge amid US-Iran conflict, but social conditions worsen with rising malnutrition and poverty.
  • Regional instability exemplified by militant attacks in Mali and internal Nigerian security force rivalries undermine counterterrorism capacity.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Nigeria

Updated July 20, 2026

aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

Iran suggests MoU ‘suspended’ as 50 killed in US strikes in July | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Conflict has been escalating since US President Donald Trump declared 10 days ago that peace deal with Iran was over.

Read source

cnn.com · 3 days ago

July 17, 2026 — Iran and US widen attacks as renewed conflict shows no sign of de-escalating | CNN

The US military said it completed its seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iran. This comes after Tehran launched another wave in its widening series of attacks on US allies in the region.

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

Read source