Nigeria

Nigeria has a 16.3% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, making this a high risk. The country’s long history of Boko Haram and Islamic State–linked insurgency, communal violence, militancy, banditry, and weak security in peripheral areas leaves several pathways to wider domestic conflict. Economic and institutional pressures further constrain the state’s ability to contain armed groups and local disputes.

Recent reporting shows that jihadists killed 15 Nigerian soldiers in Borno, prompting the army chief to visit troops on 18 October. Boko Haram is also reportedly preparing a new generation of fighters, while the EU has pledged £20 million in military support as Nigeria awaits attack helicopters and drones. These developments concern the ongoing northeastern conflict and the state’s efforts to contain it; they are relevant because renewed escalation could generate a distinct wider onset elsewhere on Nigerian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing insurgency and other local violence remain geographically contained or connect with communal, criminal, or separatist mobilisation. A coordinated jihadist expansion, major attacks beyond established theatres, or security-force fragmentation would raise risk; sustained territorial control, effective intelligence cooperation, and successful disruption of recruitment would lower it.