Nigeria

Nigeria has a 21.6% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, making it a critical risk. The country’s long history of internal violence, including the Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa insurgencies, communal clashes, banditry, and separatist unrest, provides a substantial base of conflict exposure. Large regional inequalities, institutional strain, and limited state control in parts of the north and southeast further support the risk.

Recent reporting highlights continuing US and Nigerian military operations against armed groups in northern Nigeria, while an account published on 5 September reported the investigation into 16 senior officers accused of preparing an attempted coup. The northern insurgency is ongoing and therefore is not itself a new-onset event, but military pressure, armed-group adaptation, and any political-military rupture could create new fighting on Nigerian territory. No prediction market was available.

The main uncertainty is whether existing violence remains geographically contained and whether political institutions can manage security and succession pressures without a broader rupture. Risk would rise most clearly through a confirmed coup attempt, mutiny, major attacks in new regions, or sustained clashes involving state forces and political or communal organisations; credible de-escalation, improved security coordination, and reduced armed-group activity would lower it.