Cameroon

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Cameroon is 10.0%, representing a high risk. The country’s history of political violence, persistent governance tensions, and limited institutional capacity support continued vulnerability. Cameroon is also managing an established armed conflict in its English-speaking Northwest and Southwest regions, demonstrating that unresolved grievances can generate sustained domestic violence, although continuation of that conflict is not itself a new-onset event.

Recent reporting provides limited direct evidence of a new escalation on national territory. The strongest reported development is the arrest of at least 68 people during an anti-gay crackdown in Douala’s Makepe and Bonamoussadi neighbourhoods on 23 August, indicating coercive domestic tensions but not armed conflict. No prediction market is available for Cameroon.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing political, regional, and social tensions could combine into a distinct armed confrontation beyond the conflicts already underway. Risk would rise with organised attacks, mutiny, insurgent mobilisation, or cross-border violence reaching Cameroon; it would fall with durable political accommodation, stronger protection for vulnerable groups, and sustained containment of armed actors.