Cameroon

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Cameroon is 6.7%, representing a high risk. The principal long-run drivers are the country’s history of armed conflict, persistent institutional and political tensions, limited state reach in some regions, and unresolved grievances involving Anglophone communities. Existing violence in the Northwest and Southwest, alongside insecurity in the Far North, demonstrates the capacity for armed mobilisation, although continuation of those conflicts is not itself a new-onset event.

Recent reporting provides context on the international and political dimensions of the Anglophone crisis. A Belfast Telegraph investigation describes Jeffrey Donaldson’s past Ministry of Defence-related role, payments, and influence connected to the conflict, highlighting the sensitivity of the crisis and the involvement of external actors. Cameroon’s government, Anglophone separatist groups, and communities in the Northwest and Southwest remain the principal actors relevant to escalation.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing regional violence could broaden into a distinct new conflict on territory not already affected, or whether political management contains it. Risk would rise with major state–separatist clashes, organised violence spreading into new regions, or renewed insurgent mobilisation; credible negotiations, reduced abuses, and effective local security arrangements would lower the likelihood of a new onset.