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Silfio country intelligence · CAF
Central African Republic
11.5% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country. Existing conflicts are assessed through scenario analysis.
Population
5.51M
GDP
$3.07B
Currency
XAF
Capital
Bangui
Land area
622.98K km²
Official languages
French, Sango
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 11.5%, representing a high risk of a new armed-conflict onset in the Central African Republic. The country’s history of coups, civil war, militia competition, weak state authority, limited economic capacity, and insecurity outside Bangui continues to support this level.
Recent reporting provides no major new conflict development to highlight. The principal potential actors remain government forces, armed groups linked to the former Séléka and anti-balaka coalitions, local militias, and foreign security partners whose activities can affect the balance of power.
The largest uncertainty is whether existing armed-group networks could convert local disputes, political confrontation, or pressure on remote communities into sustained fighting on national territory. Risk would rise with coordinated militia attacks, a breakdown in political arrangements, or renewed violence around Bangui; it would fall with durable disarmament and stronger state control beyond the capital.
Strategic reasoning
- The 2013 Séléka takeover and ensuing civil war left fragmented armed networks and weak institutions, making renewed internal conflict more feasible than in a settled political system.
- The absence of a highlighted current escalation is consistent with a risk driven principally by persistent armed-group capacity and limited government reach, rather than by an identified imminent attack.
- Fighting by Central African forces or partners abroad would not itself constitute a new onset; the relevant trigger is sustained armed violence on Central African territory.
Critical indicators
- In 2013, the Séléka coalition seized Bangui, followed by civil war and the mobilisation of anti-balaka forces. This established the conflict networks and political fragmentation that continue to underpin the live risk.
- The 2019 Khartoum peace agreement brought major armed groups into a political process, but implementation has not eliminated militia influence or the state’s uneven control across the country.
Probability trend
How the Central African Republic estimate has moved
Probability14.2%12.8%11.5%
Aug 26
Sep 1
Sep 7
Sep 21
Sep 30
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP · Data to 31 Aug 2026
Central African Republic: Government
132Deaths (last 12 months)- Opposition
- CPC-F
- CMSPR
- CPC
- ASP
- Started
- 26 Nov 2017
Regional context
Central African Republic compared with its neighbours and region
Central African Republic ranks number 29 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Middle Africa
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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