Silfio country intelligence

Equatorial Guinea

Moderate risk3.0% annual probabilitystable trend

Population

1.94M

GDP

$12.82B

Currency

XAF

Capital

Malabo

Land area

28.05K km²

Official languages

French, Portuguese, Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Equatorial Guinea

NEWS

Conflict probability

Model base probability

2.5%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

No prediction market data exists for Equatorial Guinea, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
Current news indicates significant regional instability centered on the Middle East (US-Iran conflict escalation), but no direct or proximate threats to Equatorial Guinea or Central Africa are reported.
No reports of internal unrest, coups, insurgencies, or foreign attacks involving Equatorial Guinea have been found in the news.
The structural model’s baseline probability is low (about 2.5%), reflecting stable long-term conditions.

Critical indicators

Escalation of US-Iran conflict with attacks on Kuwait and US military assets in the Gulf region.
Rising geopolitical risk premiums in global oil markets due to Middle East tensions.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Equatorial Guinea

Updated July 20, 2026

theguardian.com · 1 day ago

Cuba edges toward breakdown as power cuts and US meddling push society to brink | Cuba | The Guardian

As Cuba swelters under six-month oil blockade imposed by US, tempers are fraying and unrest is growing

Read source

www.theguardian.com · 1 day ago

World Cup 2026 latest: Trump criticises Tuchel, buildup to France v England and Spain v Argentina final – as it happened | World Cup 2026 | The Guardian

Donald Trump criticised Thomas Tuchel for England’s semi-final loss

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bloomberg.com · 2 days ago

Iran Ramps Up Retaliatory Attack on Kuwait After US Escalation - Bloomberg

Iran unleashed heavy attacks on Gulf neighbors in retaliation for the latest US strikes as Tehran said it was suspending its commitments under the interim peace deal.

Read source