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Silfio country intelligence

Chad

High risk9.5% annual probabilityrising trend
Chad flag

Chad facts

Population

21M

GDP

$21.47B

Currency

XAF

Capital

N'Djamena

Land area

1.28M km²

Official languages

Arabic, French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Chad

NEWS

Conflict probability

9.5%

Model base probability

5.9%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Chad, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent reports indicate the Sudan conflict has spilled over into Chad since early 2026, with cross-border strikes, military tensions, and rising community frictions along Chad’s border with Sudan, increasing the risk of new armed conflict onset on Chad’s soil.
  • The ongoing regional instability in the Lake Chad Basin, including active counterterrorism operations and efforts to revive multinational military cooperation, suggests a volatile security environment that could trigger new internal or cross-border conflict.
  • While Chad is not currently in a new internal war onset, the spillover of Sudan’s conflict and regional jihadist insurgency dynamics elevate the near-term risk beyond the structural baseline.

Critical indicators

  • Since April 2023, Sudan’s war has expanded into Chad territory with border strikes and military tensions (Mondafrique, March 2026).
  • US and Nigerian military operations against jihadists in the Lake Chad Basin continue, with efforts to revive multinational military cooperation (May and July 2026).

Related coverage

Latest articles about Chad

Updated July 20, 2026

thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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thebftonline.com · 3 days ago

US military operations in the Lake Chad Basin | B&FT

The United States and Nigerian strike that killed Abu Bilal al-Minuki in a well-coordinated operation on 16 May 2026 was an important step forward in the war against terrorism in Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin.

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mondafrique.com · 3 days ago

Best of Soudan (4). La guerre s'invite au Tchad - Mondafrique

Après trois ans de conflit, la guerre déborde désormais sur le territoire tchadien. Frappes à la frontière, tensions militaires, crispations communautaires : la crise soudanaise rattrape N’Djamena. Par Leslie Varenne (27 mars 2026) Depuis avril 2023, la guerre au Soudan oppose l’armée ...

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