Libya

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Libya is 20.5%, making this a critical risk. Libya’s divided institutions, competing administrations, fragmented security forces, weak rule of law, and history of civil war and recurrent militia violence leave disputes capable of escalating rapidly. The presence of rival armed coalitions also makes national political settlements vulnerable to local breakdowns.

Recent reporting shows clashes in Al-Qatrun, southern Libya, after the shooting of 16-year-old Hussein Matar. Residents accused the LNA’s 87th Battalion, while local groups demanded an investigation, placing LNA-linked forces and community actors at the centre of the immediate tension. Reports about armed groups receiving narcotics shipments and RSF activity near the Sudan-Chad-Libya border add regional-security context, but do not themselves establish fighting inside Libya.

The main uncertainty is whether the Al-Qatrun violence remains a contained local confrontation or develops into sustained clashes involving organised forces. Risk would rise if reprisals spread, LNA units mobilised beyond the area, or rival authorities intervened; credible accountability, local mediation, and containment by security commanders would lower escalation pressure.