Egypt

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Egyptian territory is 16.5%, representing a high risk. Egypt’s exposure reflects its history of insurgency, including sustained jihadist violence in Sinai, alongside concentrated political power, economic pressures, and a powerful security establishment that can generate internal confrontation during periods of instability.

The strongest current signal is Cairo’s pledge to support Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has sought parliamentary authorization for assistance, while Egypt’s top security body has approved support; reports also say two Egyptian C-130H aircraft reached Saudi Arabia. Houthi warnings that Egyptian involvement could threaten national security create a pathway for retaliation reaching Egypt, although Cairo describes its role as defensive. The principal actors are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and their Iranian backers.

The largest uncertainty is whether Egyptian assistance remains limited to defense and support outside Egypt or expands into direct combat, prompting Houthi retaliation. Risk would rise most clearly after a strike on Egyptian territory, Egyptian military casualties, or an expanded deployment; it would fall if parliament restricts the mission and the Yemen-Saudi confrontation de-escalates. A partial-scope Polymarket contract places the chance of Iran targeting Egypt by October 31 at 1.5%, providing separate, near-term market context.