Tunisia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Tunisia is 7.7%, a high risk. The main supporting factors are political and economic fragility, weakened institutional checks, social tensions, and Tunisia’s history of unrest since the 2011 revolution, including episodes of militant violence and domestic confrontation.

Recent reporting shows continued pressure on opposition voices under President Kais Saied. The detention and ordered arrest of journalist Mohamed Yousfi, a vocal presidential critic, prompted condemnation from a journalists’ union and reflects worsening relations between state authorities, civil society, and independent media. The principal actors are the presidency, courts, security institutions, journalists’ organisations, and wider opposition networks.

The largest uncertainty is whether political repression and economic hardship remain largely non-violent or trigger sustained mobilisation, factional violence, or militant exploitation. Risk would rise through mass unrest met by lethal repression, organised attacks, or a breakdown in security-force cohesion; it would fall through credible political de-escalation, protection for civic freedoms, and effective economic relief.