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Silfio country intelligence

Tunisia

High risk6.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Tunisia flag

Tunisia facts

Population

12.35M

GDP

$57.5B

Currency

TND

Capital

Tunis

Land area

163.61K km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Tunisia

NEWS

Conflict probability

6%

Model base probability

4.4%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Tunisia, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Although Tunisia itself is not directly involved in the US-Iran conflict, the regional instability in the Middle East and Gulf, including attacks on infrastructure and military assets, raises the risk of spillover effects or proxy conflicts that could destabilize Tunisia.
  • Tunisia is currently experiencing internal political and judicial pressures, including attacks on civil society and lawyers, which could increase the risk of internal unrest or insurgency.
  • The ongoing US-Iran conflict escalation and Iran’s internal power struggles increase regional volatility, which historically can elevate the risk of new armed conflict on neighboring or nearby states’ territories.

Critical indicators

  • Escalation of US-Iran hostilities with attacks on military and infrastructure targets in the Gulf region.
  • Attacks and persecution targeting Tunisia’s civil society and judicial independence, indicating rising internal tensions.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Tunisia

Updated July 20, 2026

www.hindustantimes.com · 1 day ago

US-Iran war LIVE: Iran 'hits' two US military assets in Kuwait, uncertainty looms over peace deal as attacks escalate

US-Iran war LIVE: Two US soldiers were killed and four injured in Iranian fire in Jordan. Following the killings, the US military said that it carried out new airstrikes against Iran on Sunday to “swiftly punish” the country’s Revolutionary Guard for the casualties. | World News

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edition.cnn.com · 2 days ago

Iran’s hardliners warn of a ‘coup’ as US truce comes under pressure | CNN

Hardline factions in Iran believe that instead of avenging the late supreme leader’s killing, Iranian officials have surrendered by signing an agreement with the US.

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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