Algeria

Algeria’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 10.3%, a high risk. The main long-run supports are the country’s history of civil war and insurgency during the 1990s, persistent militant threats in the Sahel and southern borderlands, and political institutions shaped by strong security-sector influence. Algeria’s substantial state capacity and experience suppressing armed groups remain important restraints, but they do not remove the possibility of renewed internal violence or spillover.

Recent reporting places Algeria in a sensitive regional security environment. Niger thanked Algeria and other partners on September 4 after an attempted destabilisation at Base 101 in Niamey on August 28–29, highlighting Algeria’s exposure to instability along its southern frontier. Algerian state media also released footage of Kilo-class submarines operating and firing a cruise missile in the Mediterranean, demonstrating military capability but not an attack on Algerian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether instability in Niger and the wider Sahel generates cross-border militant activity or domestic mobilisation inside Algeria. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed armed incursion, sustained militant attacks, or organised domestic rebellion; it would fall with durable border control and continued containment of armed networks. No prediction market is available.