Morocco

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Morocco is 5.0%, a moderate risk. Morocco’s strong state institutions, security capacity, and control over major population centres constrain escalation, while economic inequality, limited political space, and periodic protest mobilisation create domestic pressures. The country’s history of conflict over Western Sahara and episodes of unrest, including the Rif protests, provide a persistent backdrop.

Recent reporting highlights heightened friction around Morocco’s relationship with Spain after mass crossings into Ceuta on July 29–30. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said on September 4 that there was no solid proof Morocco organised the incident, while other coverage described allegations of coercive or “hybrid” pressure. Morocco and Mauritania are also strengthening security cooperation as Sahel violence, trafficking, and migration pressures intensify.

The main uncertainty is whether border disputes, migration episodes, or Sahel spillover remain managed through diplomacy and security coordination or trigger sustained armed mobilisation on Moroccan territory. Risk would rise if unrest became prolonged and violent, or if an external confrontation reached Morocco; it would fall if Rabat, Madrid, and regional partners contained border tensions and domestic grievances without organised armed resistance.