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Silfio country intelligence

Morocco

Moderate risk3.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Morocco flag

Morocco facts

Population

38.43M

GDP

$182.37B

Currency

MAD

Capital

Rabat

Land area

446.55K km²

Official languages

Arabic, Berber

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Morocco

NEWS

Conflict probability

3.5%

Model base probability

3.1%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Morocco, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News indicates Morocco is consolidating its internal stability through counter-terrorism, economic growth, and diplomatic advances, which reduces internal conflict risk.
  • However, the broader regional context is highly unstable, with escalating US-Iran conflict, attacks on Gulf infrastructure, and warnings of wider regional war involving Iran and its allies.
  • Morocco is not directly involved in these conflicts, but regional instability in the Maghreb and Middle East could increase spillover risks, including potential destabilization campaigns or proxy conflicts.

Critical indicators

  • Morocco’s firm stance against destabilization campaigns in the Maghreb and ongoing counter-terrorism efforts (2026-07-16).
  • Escalation of US-Iran conflict with attacks on Gulf allies and infrastructure, raising regional instability (July 2026).
  • Morocco’s advanced-stage negotiations to acquire submarines for its navy, indicating heightened security concerns (2026-07-19).

Related coverage

Latest articles about Morocco

Updated July 20, 2026

atalayar.com · 14 hours ago

Morocco stands firm against destabilisation campaigns in the Maghreb

Counter-terrorism efficiency, economic growth, and diplomatic advances in the Sahara consolidate the Kingdom’s international leadership

Read source

aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

Iran suggests MoU ‘suspended’ as 50 killed in US strikes in July | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Conflict has been escalating since US President Donald Trump declared 10 days ago that peace deal with Iran was over.

Read source

politico.eu · 2 days ago

Water infrastructure hit in Iran, Kuwait amid latest Gulf war flare-up – POLITICO

Tehran attacked Washington’s Gulf allies after another night of U.S. strikes.

Read source