Morocco

The live 12-month probability is 5.0%, representing a moderate risk of a new armed conflict on Moroccan territory. Morocco’s capable security institutions, comparatively strong state capacity, and experience managing internal unrest contain the likelihood of sustained violence. The unresolved Western Sahara dispute and tensions surrounding Ceuta and Melilla remain important background risks, although they have not produced a new conflict inside Morocco in recent reporting.

Current evidence points mainly to military preparedness rather than active escalation. The United States is planning 2027 counter-drone trials in Morocco involving up to 15 systems, reinforcing defence cooperation and Morocco’s role as a military testing partner. A Spanish poll reported on tensions over Ceuta and Melilla, with 58.0% of respondents saying they could trigger a Morocco-Spain war, but this reflects public concern rather than evidence of an imminent armed clash. No prediction market is available.

The largest uncertainty is whether disputes over Western Sahara or the Spanish enclaves generate a sudden crisis involving Morocco, Spain, or regional armed actors. Risk would rise with a cross-border incident, mobilisation, or renewed organised violence on Moroccan territory; sustained diplomatic management and continued security cooperation would support a lower likelihood of onset.