Spain

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Spain is 1.2%, making this a low risk. Spain’s strong institutions, substantial economic capacity, professional security services, and integration into the European Union and NATO constrain escalation. Its main historical exposure has been domestic political violence, particularly the Basque conflict involving ETA, which ended as an active armed campaign in 2011.

Recent reporting provides no specific indication of an imminent armed campaign or foreign attack reaching Spanish territory. The principal potential internal flashpoints are severe confrontation around territorial politics in Catalonia or the Basque Country, while the Spanish state, regional governments, and security services retain substantial capacity to manage unrest. No prediction market is available for Spain.

The largest uncertainty is whether a future constitutional or territorial crisis could produce sustained violence rather than protests, isolated attacks, or civil disorder. Risk would rise most clearly with the emergence of an organized armed group, repeated politically motivated attacks, or a breakdown in cooperation between Madrid and regional authorities; continued institutional management and the absence of organized violence would support the current low level.