Spain

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Spanish territory is 1.3%, a low risk. Spain’s high-income economy, established democratic institutions, capable security services, and integration with European security structures strongly support domestic stability. The main historical exception is the Basque conflict, where ETA’s armed campaign ended in 2011; Spain has not experienced a comparable sustained insurgency in recent years.

Recent reporting provides no indication of organised armed mobilisation by domestic groups or preparations for an interstate attack on Spain. The latest cited development concerns FIFA sanctions against Spain after Islamophobic chants by supporters during a March friendly against Egypt at the RCDE Stadium near Barcelona. This is a serious public-order and social-cohesion issue, but it is not evidence of armed-conflict onset. No prediction markets were found for Spain.

The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political or territorial crisis could turn otherwise managed tensions into sustained violence, particularly if extremist networks or separatist actors acquired operational capacity. Risk would rise with armed attacks, organised paramilitary mobilisation, or direct external attacks on Spanish territory; it would remain lower if disputes continue to be handled through elections, courts, policing, and regional institutions.