San Marino

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on San Marino’s territory is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. San Marino has no recent record of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate fighting, while its small, wealthy economy and durable republican institutions support political stability. Its location within Italy also places it in a highly secure European environment.

Recent reporting provides no specific indication of mobilisation, armed political confrontation, or external threats involving San Marino. The principal security actor is Italy, whose territory surrounds San Marino and whose wider security framework substantially reduces the likelihood that an interstate dispute or armed group could reach the country.

The main uncertainty is the possibility of an unexpected regional crisis or isolated incident spilling across the Italian border, although no current development points to such a scenario. Risk would rise most clearly with armed violence in neighbouring Italy, a serious breakdown in San Marino’s institutions, or the emergence of a domestic armed movement; sustained regional stability and continued institutional continuity would support the minimal level.