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Silfio country intelligence

San Marino

Low risk1.0% annual probabilityrising trend
San Marino flag

San Marino facts

Population

34.11K

GDP

$2.03B

Currency

EUR

Capital

City of San Marino

Land area

61 km²

Official languages

Italian

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of San Marino

NEWS

Conflict probability

1%

Model base probability

0.7%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for San Marino, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news shows intense and escalating armed conflict between the US and Iran, including strikes on civilian and military infrastructure, naval blockades, and casualties.
  • Although this conflict is geographically distant from San Marino and there is no direct indication of conflict risk on San Marino’s territory, the global geopolitical risk environment is elevated, increasing the chance of unexpected conflict spillovers or new conflict on even stable territories.
  • San Marino is a very small, peaceful microstate with no history or current signs of internal conflict or vulnerability to interstate conflict, so the risk increase should be modest.

Critical indicators

  • US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Exchange of strikes between US and Iran targeting military and civilian infrastructure, including attacks resulting in casualties.

Related coverage

Latest articles about San Marino

Updated July 20, 2026

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports? | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is expected to build on the Iranian public, as well as global energy markets due to the US blockade.

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npr.org · 2 days ago

The U.S. and Iran blow past red lines as they lurch back toward all-out war

The United States and Iran exchanged strikes aimed at infrastructure and military targets on Saturday as their battle over the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

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