Italy

Italy’s 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on its territory is 0.9%, a minimal risk. The country has strong state capacity, consolidated institutions, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory. Its post-war political record includes periods of terrorism and extremist violence, but these did not develop into sustained armed conflict.

Recent reporting is dominated by political continuity rather than mobilisation or organised violence. Giorgia Meloni’s government became Italy’s longest-serving cabinet since World War II on 4 September, while coverage highlights pressure from the nationalist right and unfinished economic reforms. A reported iron-bar attack on pedestrians in Martina Franca was an isolated criminal incident, not evidence of an armed campaign; no prediction market was available.

The main uncertainty is whether political polarisation, extremist activity, organised crime, or an external crisis could generate sustained armed violence beyond Italy’s effective security response. Risk would rise most clearly with coordinated attacks, armed clashes involving organised domestic groups, or a serious spillover from a neighbouring conflict; continued institutional stability and containment of isolated violence would support the current level.