Silfio country intelligence · CHE
Switzerland
0.3% annual probability
Population
9.09M
GDP
$1.04T
Currency
CHF
Capital
Bern
Land area
41.28K km²
Official languages
French, Italian, Romansh, Swiss German
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Swiss territory is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Switzerland’s strong institutions, high state capacity, prosperous economy, effective internal security, and long record without civil war or interstate fighting provide substantial protection against armed conflict. Its federal political system and established mechanisms for direct democracy also support peaceful dispute resolution.
Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific development indicating an armed confrontation involving Switzerland, its authorities, or organised domestic groups. The principal relevant actors remain the federal government, cantonal authorities, and established political parties, all operating through legal and electoral channels. Switzerland’s neutrality and defensive military posture also reduce incentives for foreign actors to initiate conflict on its territory.
The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political, security, or external shock could disrupt Switzerland’s exceptionally stable conflict environment. The clearest risk-raising development would be sustained armed violence by domestic actors or a cross-border attack reaching Swiss territory; continued peaceful political competition and the absence of organised violence would support the current minimal-risk assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Switzerland’s long-standing political stability, high institutional capacity, and absence of a recent armed-conflict history make sustained domestic violence or invasion highly difficult to initiate and maintain.
- The available material identifies no current armed-group mobilisation or cross-border attack involving Swiss territory. The November 2026 political questions are being handled through the country’s established referendum process, separating political contention from new conflict onset.
Critical indicators
- On 7 September 2026, available reporting supplied for review contained no dated report of armed violence, insurgent activity, coup activity, or an attack reaching Switzerland. This is consistent with the country’s established record of peaceful internal political competition.
- Polymarket pricing for the 29 November 2026 referendum on restricting fireworks was 21.0%, while pricing for additional AVS funding through higher VAT was 60.0%. These markets concern ordinary popular votes, not armed conflict, and illustrate that current political disputes are proceeding through constitutional channels.
Probability trend
How the Switzerland estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Switzerland compared with its neighbours and region
Switzerland ranks number 159 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Western Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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