Switzerland

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Swiss territory is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Switzerland’s long record of internal peace, strong institutions, high state capacity, federal power-sharing, and effective policing strongly support this low level. Its last civil conflict, the Sonderbund War, occurred in 1847, while modern political disputes are overwhelmingly managed through elections, referendums, courts, and negotiation.

Recent developments point to contentious but peaceful political activity rather than armed mobilisation. The principal actors are the federal government, cantonal authorities, political parties, and organised groups campaigning around the 29 November 2026 votes. Prediction markets also focus on referendum outcomes and possible UBS decisions, not conflict-related developments. Switzerland’s neutrality and international links may create external diplomatic pressure, but no supplied reporting indicates an imminent attack or organised domestic violence.

The main uncertainty is whether a sudden external crisis, terrorist attack, or severe political rupture could overwhelm established safeguards. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed violence, a serious cross-border attack reaching Swiss territory, or evidence of organised insurgent or coup activity; continued peaceful referendum campaigning, institutional dispute resolution, and the absence of armed mobilisation would reinforce the minimal-risk assessment.