Netherlands

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Netherlands is 0.4%, a minimal risk. The country’s strong institutions, capable security services, high state capacity, and long record without civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory support this low level. Criminal violence has occurred, but it has not developed into sustained armed conflict between organised domestic or foreign-backed forces.

Recent reporting centres on serious organised-crime violence in Overasselt, including firearms and attacks involving police. The suspects span the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Algeria, Libya, and Ukraine, while Justice Minister David van Weel said on 4 September that criminals do not control the country. The incident is significant for public security but remains distinct from a conflict onset.

The main uncertainty is whether organised-crime networks could generate repeated, coordinated armed attacks beyond local disputes or provoke wider political violence. Risk would rise if armed groups began sustained attacks against state institutions or territorial control; it would remain low if arrests, prosecutions, and effective policing contain the Overasselt investigation and prevent escalation.