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Silfio country intelligence · NLD
Netherlands
0.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
18.09M
GDP
$1.33T
Currency
EUR
Capital
Amsterdam
Land area
41.85K km²
Official languages
Dutch
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The Netherlands faces a 0.3% 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on its territory, a minimal risk. Its strong institutions, prosperous economy, capable security services, and long record of peaceful political competition provide substantial protection. The country’s last major experience of interstate warfare was the German invasion in May 1940, while postwar domestic politics have not produced sustained armed conflict.
Recent reporting provides no specific indication of an emerging armed confrontation within the Netherlands. The principal relevant actors are the Dutch government, police, armed forces, and NATO allies; none is associated with a current conflict onset on Dutch territory. The Netherlands’ alliance commitments and role as a host to international institutions can create security exposure, but do not themselves constitute fighting at home.
The main uncertainty is whether an unexpected external attack, severe domestic political rupture, or sustained militant campaign could overcome the country’s institutional resilience. A confirmed armed attack reaching Dutch territory or prolonged organised violence between domestic groups would raise risk most clearly; continued political stability and effective security cooperation would support the minimal classification.
Strategic reasoning
- High state capacity, resilient institutions, and the absence of a recent civil war or insurgency make sustained armed violence on Dutch territory unlikely. The German invasion in 1940 remains the key modern precedent for interstate conflict at home.
- NATO membership and the Netherlands’ international role create potential exposure to wider confrontation, but the country’s forces operating abroad would not count as a new onset on Dutch territory without fighting reaching the Netherlands.
Critical indicators
- May 1940: Germany invaded and occupied the Netherlands, the country’s defining modern example of interstate conflict on its own territory. The postwar absence of a comparable invasion supports the low likelihood of a new onset.
- 1944–1945: Allied forces liberated the Netherlands, after which the country returned to stable constitutional government and avoided sustained domestic armed conflict. This history reinforces the importance of its institutional resilience in assessing current risk.
Probability trend
How the Netherlands estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Netherlands.
Regional context
Netherlands compared with its neighbours and region
Netherlands ranks number 152 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Western Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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