Silfio country intelligence · LIE
Liechtenstein
0.1% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
41.02K
GDP
$8.91B
Currency
CHF
Capital
Vaduz
Land area
160 km²
Official languages
German
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Liechtenstein is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate conflict, while its small, wealthy economy, effective institutions, and close integration with Switzerland and the wider European environment support stability.
Recent reporting supplied for 19 October 2026 identifies no armed confrontation, mobilisation, or domestic political rupture involving Liechtenstein. The principal relevant actors are the Liechtenstein state, its domestic institutions, Switzerland, and neighbouring Austria; none is associated with a current dispute that points toward violence on Liechtenstein territory.
The largest uncertainty is the possibility of an unforeseen regional crisis or isolated violent incident affecting a highly exposed microstate. Risk would rise most clearly with a sustained armed confrontation involving Liechtenstein’s authorities or territory; continued institutional stability, peaceful relations with Switzerland and Austria, and the absence of organised armed actors would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Liechtenstein’s absence of a modern conflict history, small population, stable governance, and high economic capacity leave little evident basis for an internally organised armed challenge.
- Its location between Switzerland and Austria provides a strong security environment; the main residual concern would be spillover from a wider European crisis, not an existing domestic conflict.
Critical indicators
- On 19 October 2026, the supplied news contains no report of armed violence, military mobilisation, or a political breakdown in Liechtenstein, leaving no identified immediate trigger for onset.
- No prediction market for Liechtenstein was available; the country’s established record of peaceful domestic politics and non-involvement in armed conflict remains the relevant context for the current assessment.
Probability trend
How the Liechtenstein estimate has moved
Probability0.1%0.1%0.1%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Liechtenstein.
Regional context
Liechtenstein compared with its neighbours and region
Liechtenstein ranks number 189 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Western Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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