Luxembourg

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Luxembourg’s territory is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Luxembourg has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate fighting on its territory, while strong institutions, high state capacity, and integration into the European Union and NATO support domestic stability.

Recent reporting shows regulatory enforcement rather than political or security violence. On 4 September 2026, Luxembourg’s financial regulator, the CSSF, fined Stonehage Fleming Luxembourg S.A. €56,000 for anti-money-laundering and sanctions-screening compliance failures. The issue involves financial supervision, not armed mobilisation, and no prediction markets were available for Luxembourg.

The main uncertainty is the possibility of an exceptional external shock affecting a highly internationalised country, although there is no current reporting of an armed-group threat, domestic unrest, or hostile military activity directed at Luxembourg. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained political violence, an organised armed movement, or a cross-border attack reaching Luxembourg; continued institutional enforcement and the absence of such developments would support the minimal-risk assessment.