All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Luxembourg

Minimal risk0.6% annual probabilitystable trend
Luxembourg flag

Luxembourg facts

Population

686.97K

GDP

$101.16B

Currency

EUR

Capital

Luxembourg

Land area

2.59K km²

Official languages

French, German, Luxembourgish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Luxembourg

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.6%

Model base probability

0.5%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Luxembourg, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News indicates heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe, particularly due to Russia's hybrid warfare tactics (cyberespionage, sabotage, drone overflights) targeting European countries, and increased military activities in neighboring regions.
  • While these tensions and hybrid attacks are serious, there is no direct indication or credible threat of armed conflict on Luxembourg's soil.
  • However, given Luxembourg's location in Europe and the general rise in regional instability and hybrid threats, a modest upward adjustment is warranted to reflect elevated but still very low risk of new armed conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Russian hybrid warfare campaign involving sabotage and drone overflights in Europe (France reports).
  • European disunity undermining sanctions against Russia, reflecting broader regional instability.
  • Increased military tensions and sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and broader European security environment.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Luxembourg

Updated July 20, 2026

forbes.com · 3 days ago

Europe’s Disunity Undermines Sanctions Against Russia

European disunity in not just energy, but increasingly legal orientation and political outlook, is undermining Brussels' sanctions against Russia.

Read source

lemonde.fr · 2 days ago

Pourquoi la guerre hybride menée par la Russie pousse la France à hausser le ton

Entre sabotages et survols de drones, une vaste campagne de cyberespionnage a été attribuée au renseignement intérieur russe par les services français. En réponse, le chargé d’affaires de l’ambassade de Russie, à Paris, a été convoqué, vendredi 17 juillet, par le ministre des ...

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

Read source