Germany

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on German territory is 0.8%, a minimal risk. Germany’s long peace since 1945, strong democratic institutions, capable security services, high economic capacity, and NATO membership substantially constrain the prospects of civil conflict or invasion. Its history of postwar political stability is the most important long-run factor.

Recent reporting highlights two pressures: the AfD won 44.0% in Saxony-Anhalt’s 6 September regional election, intensifying political polarisation, while Germany accused Russia of an explosive-drone attack on Leipzig Airport. Moscow rejected the accusation and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described the situation as the start of a “real war”; Germany and Russia also closed cultural centres.

The main uncertainty is whether alleged Russian sabotage develops into repeated, lethal attacks on German territory, or whether domestic political polarisation produces sustained armed mobilisation. Risk would rise most clearly with a confirmed, deadly follow-on attack or organised political violence; it would be lowered by effective investigations, deterrence, and continued adherence by major parties and security institutions to constitutional processes.