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Silfio country intelligence · DEU
Germany
0.8% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
83.49M
GDP
$5.05T
Currency
EUR
Capital
Berlin
Land area
357.11K km²
Official languages
German
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Germany is 0.8%, representing a minimal risk. Germany’s strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective security services, and stable civilian control of the armed forces weigh against civil war, insurgency, coups, or invasion. Since 1945, Germany has not experienced sustained armed conflict on its territory.
Recent reporting shows political friction but no organised armed mobilisation. On 14 October, aides to Alternative for Germany lawmakers were reportedly involved in a drunken brawl in a Bundestag building; the incident involved individual political staff and does not indicate sustained armed violence. Germany remains embedded in NATO and the European Union, while no neighbouring state or armed group is reported to be preparing an attack on German territory.
The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political or external security crisis could turn isolated violence into organised domestic confrontation. Risk would rise with armed attacks, coordinated extremist mobilisation, or a breakdown of state authority; it would remain lower if political disputes stay within legal institutions and security cooperation continues.
Strategic reasoning
- Germany’s post-1945 absence of civil war, insurgency, or coup activity, combined with robust institutions and security capacity, strongly limits the conditions for a new conflict onset.
- The Bundestag brawl is a signal of political friction but not an armed campaign; the main escalatory concern would be repeated, organised violence involving political or extremist networks.
Critical indicators
- On 14 October 2026, aides to AfD lawmakers reportedly fought while intoxicated in a Bundestag building. The episode indicates disorder around political actors but does not meet the threshold for sustained armed violence.
- Polymarket placed the probability of France, the UK, or Germany taking military action against Yemen at 1.3% by 31 October and 5.1% by 31 December 2026. These markets have no stated scope and concern possible action abroad, not conflict occurring on German territory.
Probability trend
How the Germany estimate has moved
Probability0.8%0.8%0.8%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Germany.
Regional context
Germany compared with its neighbours and region
Germany ranks number 122 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Western Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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