Poland

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Polish territory is 0.8%, representing a minimal risk. Poland’s capable state institutions, expanding defence capacity, NATO membership, and EU integration provide substantial deterrence and crisis-management advantages. Since the end of communist rule, Poland has not experienced civil war, insurgency, or sustained domestic armed violence, although its history of invasion and its location beside Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia remain important risk factors.

Recent reporting shows heightened exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war rather than fighting in Poland itself. On 16 October, Poland scrambled fighter jets during Russian strikes on western Ukraine, while preventive air operations and temporary airport suspensions were also reported. Poland is additionally hosting planned November exercises involving at least 1,500 British, French, and German troops, with Sweden intending to keep Patriot systems deployed into 2027.

The largest uncertainty is whether a Russian strike, airspace incident, or unidentified object could accidentally or deliberately reach Polish territory and trigger escalation. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed cross-border attack or repeated violations; it would fall with sustained containment of the Ukraine war and continued effective NATO air-defence coordination.