Russia

The live 12-month probability is 15.6%, representing a high risk. Russia’s history of internal armed conflict, including the Chechen wars and recurrent separatist violence, combines with its extensive mobilisation, centralised institutions, and ongoing confrontation with Ukraine. These conditions provide pathways for domestic unrest, armed rebellion, or interstate escalation to reach Russian territory.

Recent reporting shows Ukraine launched more than 1,000 drones on 18 October, setting an oil-export facility ablaze in St. Petersburg. The continuing Russia-Ukraine war remains the principal external driver, while President Trump’s suspension of newly enacted Russia sanctions has added uncertainty around US leverage and the conflict’s trajectory. The reported attacks are part of the existing war, but their reach into a major Russian city demonstrates escalation pathways relevant to a new onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether further strikes remain bounded within the existing war or trigger direct Russian confrontation with NATO, domestic destabilisation, or wider armed violence. Risk would rise if attacks caused sustained disruption or mass casualties inside Russia, or if Russia directly confronted a NATO member; credible ceasefire implementation and reduced cross-border attacks would lower the likelihood of a new onset.