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Silfio country intelligence

Russia

High risk11.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Russia flag

Russia facts

Population

143.51M

GDP

$2.56T

Currency

RUB

Capital

Moscow

Land area

17.1M km²

Official languages

Russian

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Russia

MARKET

Conflict probability

11.5%

Model base probability

6.9%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • Prediction markets show moderate probabilities for new conflict-related events involving Russia, including a 6.5% chance of a coup attempt in 2026 and 5.9% chance of a US-Russia military clash by end of 2026, both indicating elevated risk of new internal or interstate conflict on Russian soil.
  • Several markets imply ongoing or expanding military operations in Ukraine but also significant probabilities (e.g., 16.5% NATO-Russia clash, 5.5% Russia invading NATO country) that could escalate to new conflict on Russian territory, especially given the war context and cross-border drone strikes on Russian logistics hubs.
  • Near-term markets (resolving within 3-6 months) with moderate probabilities (e.g., coup attempt, military clashes) annualize to higher 12-month risk, supporting an upward adjustment from the structural baseline of ~7%.
  • News corroborates increased internal instability risks: Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics centers inside Russia, fuel shortages, economic strain, and growing public discontent suggest potential for insurgency or unrest, consistent with elevated new conflict onset risk.

Critical indicators

  • Prediction market: 6.5% probability of Russia coup attempt in 2026 (high volume)
  • Prediction market: 5.9% probability of US-Russia military clash by end 2026
  • Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics centers and oil depots inside Russia
  • Economic and social strain inside Russia increasing public discontent and regime vulnerability

Related coverage

Latest articles about Russia

Updated July 20, 2026

crisisgroup.org · 2 days ago

Russia | International Crisis Group

Moscow sees itself as having embarked upon a broad confrontation with Western powers aimed at reshaping the global order. Its continuing war in Ukraine is thus meant both to subjugate that country and assert and cement Russia’s place in Europe and the world.

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independent.co.uk · 6 minutes ago

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian oil depots hit after Putin launches ballistic missile attack on Kyiv | The Independent

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in · Swipe for next article

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understandingwar.org · 2 days ago

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2026 | ISW

The Russian MoD appears committed to optimizing Russian forces for continued positional warfare in Ukraine, by ISW.

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