Russia

Russia faces a 31.6% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, a critical risk. The main long-run factors are its ongoing war against Ukraine, repeated exposure to terrorism and insurgency, the 2023 Wagner mutiny, and highly centralised institutions that can make succession or elite conflict more abrupt. Its large military capacity also creates channels for escalation with neighbouring states and NATO.

Recent reporting shows an intense long-range war, sharper rhetoric, and continued uncertainty around negotiations. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian officials in Kyiv, but no major breakthrough was announced; Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has described alleged German-linked incidents as the start of a “real war.” Ukraine remains the principal armed adversary, while Germany, the United States, and NATO are relevant external actors.

The greatest uncertainty is whether the Ukraine war remains geographically contained or produces strikes, retaliation, elite fracture, or domestic armed violence inside Russia. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed foreign attack or sustained insurgent or mutinous fighting on Russian territory; a verified ceasefire, durable negotiations, and demonstrable containment of cross-border incidents would lower the immediate pathway to a new onset.