North Korea

The live 12-month probability is 2.9%, a low risk. North Korea’s long history of confrontation with South Korea, including the 1950–53 Korean War and repeated military crises, supports a persistent possibility of renewed fighting. Its highly centralised institutions, limited transparency, nuclear and missile capabilities, and extensive military posture make accidental or deliberate escalation difficult to assess.

Recent reporting says the European Union is preparing sanctions against a North Korean camp where Russia allegedly sends abducted Ukrainian children. The development highlights deepening North Korean ties with Russia, but it is not evidence of fighting on North Korean territory. The principal actors relevant to onset risk remain North Korea, South Korea, the United States, and China, with Russia an increasingly important external partner.

The largest uncertainty is whether military signalling or an incident along the Demilitarised Zone could overcome the strong incentives of all major parties to avoid a full-scale war. Risk would rise most clearly after a lethal cross-border exchange, mobilisation, or abandonment of established crisis channels; it would fall with sustained military communication and restraint, though the underlying confrontation would remain.