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Silfio country intelligence

North Korea

Moderate risk3.5% annual probabilitystable trend
North Korea flag

North Korea facts

Population

26.57M

GDP

N/A

Currency

KPW

Capital

Pyongyang

Land area

120.54K km²

Official languages

Korean

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of North Korea

MARKET

Conflict probability

3.5%

Model base probability

2.8%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • The highest-volume prediction market on Polymarket (North Korea invading South Korea before 2027) implies a 2.8% probability over ~5.5 months (from July 2026 to December 2026). Annualizing this: 1
  • (1
  • 0.028)^(12/5.5) ≈ 5.9% annual risk of interstate conflict initiation involving North Korea. This is already roughly double the structural model's 2.8%.
  • The nuclear test markets (lower volume) show elevated probabilities for 1 or 2 tests in July 2026 (19% and 30.5%), indicating heightened military activity and signaling increased tensions, which correlate with elevated risk of conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket market: 2.8% chance North Korea invades South Korea before end of 2026 (high volume)
  • Recent North Korean accusations of US-Japan-South Korea military collusion and criticism of South Korea’s role in US maritime exercises

Related coverage

Latest articles about North Korea

Updated July 20, 2026

www.ibtimes.sg · 10 hours ago

North Korea Accuses US, Japan, South Korea of 'Military Collusion', Just a Day After Pentagon Meeting

Pyongyang's Ministry of National Defense issued the statement a day after the three countries' military chiefs met at the Pentagon for the 23rd Trilateral Chiefs of Defense meeting.

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koreatimes.co.kr · 17 hours ago

North Korea courts China, Russia at once to build leverage against US, analysts say - The Korea Times

North Korea is stepping up high-level diplomatic engagement with both China and Russia in what experts describe as a calculated effort to maximize...

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koreajoongangdaily.com · 14 hours ago

North Korean foreign minister's Russia visit fuels speculation of Kim-Putin summit

Choe Son-hui's trip may serve as a step to finalizing an agenda for a meeting between the two countries' leaders as ties deepen and Moscow takes issue with Seoul.

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