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Silfio country intelligence

Taiwan

High risk6.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Taiwan flag

Taiwan facts

Population

N/A

GDP

N/A

Currency

TWD

Capital

Taipei

Land area

36.19K km²

Official languages

Chinese

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Taiwan

MARKET

Conflict probability

6%

Model base probability

0.6%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • The highest-volume prediction market (Polymarket, $38.7M volume) on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" implies a 4.2% probability over about 5.5 months from now, which annualizes roughly to ~9% risk over 12 months. This is an order of magnitude higher than the structural model's 0.55%.
  • Other high-volume markets on military clash before 2027 (6.0%) and blockade in 2026 (6.2%) reinforce elevated risk of conflict or coercion, indicating increased tension and potential for armed conflict onset.
  • Near-term markets (e.g., invasion by Sept 30, 2026) show lower probabilities (1.6%), suggesting risk is elevated but not imminent within 3 months, consistent with a moderate upward adjustment rather than a spike.
  • News corroborates rising tensions: China’s repeated incursions near Taiwan, Taiwan’s military modernization and drone production, and regional military build-up all support increased risk of conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket $38.7M volume market shows 4.2% invasion probability by end 2026
  • China’s repeated naval incursions near Taiwan and Taiwan’s military drone buildup

Related coverage

Latest articles about Taiwan

Updated July 20, 2026

thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

Read source

telegraph.co.uk · 6 hours ago

The West must heed the warning from Taiwan: China is threatening freedom worldwide

All leaders across the democratic world must listen to President Lai and stand up to the bullies in Beijing

Read source

policycircle.org · 1 day ago

Taiwan invasion risk: Beijing’s coercion comes first | Policy Circle

China is building the option of force, but coast-guard patrols and blockade rehearsals offer Beijing a lower-risk path towards Taiwan invasion.

Read source