China

The live 12-month probability is 7.2%, representing a high risk. China’s large military and economic capacity can sustain coercive campaigns, while its history of civil war, internal unrest, and armed border disputes shows that political conflict can become violent. The Taiwan dispute and unresolved territorial claims provide persistent pathways to a new conflict affecting Chinese territory.

Recent reporting shows strategic competition continuing without a reported armed attack on China. On 16 October, China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology proposed expanded export controls covering AI, biopharmaceutical and solar technologies, reinforcing tensions with the United States and other trading partners. Principal external actors include Taiwan, the United States, Japan, the Philippines and India; domestic security institutions remain central to containing internal violence.

The largest uncertainty is whether coercive pressure around Taiwan or maritime disputes produces an unintended exchange that reaches Chinese territory, or whether domestic unrest escalates beyond state control. The clearest risk-raising development would be a lethal confrontation involving Chinese and foreign forces, especially around Taiwan or the South China Sea; sustained diplomatic and military deconfliction would lower the likelihood of onset.