China

The live 12-month probability is 7.9%, representing a high risk of a new armed-conflict onset on China’s own territory. China’s large military and economic capacity, centralized institutions, and extensive internal-security apparatus are important safeguards, while its modern history includes major civil conflict, revolutionary violence, and episodes of severe domestic unrest. The principal pathway would be a serious crisis involving Taiwan or another regional rival that expands onto the mainland, rather than China’s existing military activity abroad.

Recent reporting shows a potentially stabilising channel: Chinese commander Yang Zhibin and US Indo-Pacific commander Samuel Paparo met in Canada after a two-year break, explicitly keeping military communication lines open. The main actors are China, the United States, Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines; their confrontations mostly occur outside China’s territory, but miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait or nearby waters could create pressure for escalation.

The largest uncertainty is whether military signalling remains controlled during future encounters and exercises. Renewed commander-level contact would support crisis management and lower the chance of spillover, while a breakdown in communication combined with a fatal maritime or air incident, attacks on mainland targets, or major mobilisation around Taiwan would raise it.