Pakistan

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Pakistan is 25.7%, representing a critical risk. Pakistan’s history of insurgency, sectarian violence, military rule, and repeated conflict involving militant groups leaves it exposed to renewed internal fighting. Its difficult economic conditions, contested institutions, and persistent security pressures further support this level.

The strongest current evidence is the Pakistani military’s reported killing of 48 militants in multiple raids across restive Balochistan over 72 hours. This indicates continued organised armed activity on Pakistani territory and sustained operations involving security forces and militant groups. India–Pakistan tensions remain an important interstate risk, although recent India–Pakistan reporting has largely concerned a women’s cricket match in Dubai rather than fighting.

The main uncertainty is whether counterinsurgency operations contain militant networks or trigger broader retaliation and mobilisation. Risk would rise most clearly through a major militant attack, expanding insurgent control, or an India–Pakistan exchange reaching Pakistani territory; successful disruption of armed groups and sustained restraint between Islamabad and New Delhi would lower the danger of a new onset.