Pakistan

Pakistan’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 34.9%, a critical risk. The country’s history of insurgency, recurrent militant violence, military intervention in politics, and repeated crises with India and Afghanistan create enduring exposure to both internal and interstate escalation. Limited institutional capacity, economic pressure, and difficult border governance further constrain the state’s ability to contain shocks.

The strongest current signal is the 17 October exchange of fire between Pakistani forces and Afghan Taliban personnel at several northwestern border locations after an attempted militant infiltration. Pakistani officials said artillery destroyed Taliban posts, indicating escalation involving principal state and armed-group actors, although this event is context for new-onset risk rather than itself a new conflict onset. Pakistan has also extended its ban on Indian civilian and military flights through its airspace beyond 24 October, keeping bilateral tensions elevated.

The largest uncertainty is whether border incidents remain contained or trigger sustained fighting inside Pakistan. Further infiltration, retaliatory strikes, or a major India-Pakistan crisis would raise risk; effective de-escalation with Kabul and restraint by India would lower immediate escalation pressure.